Professor Dr. Shamir Ally has called on Guyana to channel its oil revenues into manufacturing, agro-processing and technical training, warning that the country risks squandering a historic economic opportunity if its petroleum wealth fails to generate jobs and build a diversified, productive economy.
In his column Diplomatic Speak published by Village Voice News on September 26, 2026, Ally drew on the economic development model of Sir Dr. Arthur Lewis, the St Lucian-born economist who shared the 1979 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Theodore Schultz. Lewis’s influential 1954 paper, Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour, examined how developing economies could move workers from traditional, low-productivity activities into modern, higher-productivity sectors.
Ally argued that the model offers Guyana a framework for transforming oil revenues into broader productive capacity rather than allowing economic growth to remain concentrated in the petroleum industry.
“Guyana is experiencing an unprecedented OIL boom. However, OIL is a capital-intensive sector that employs very few people,” Ally wrote.
He argued that oil revenues should be treated as a source of capital to finance other productive sectors, generate employment and strengthen the country’s long-term economic resilience.
Under the Lewis model, surplus capital generated by a modern sector can be invested in expanding productive activities, creating jobs and supporting a transition away from traditional economic sectors. Applied to Guyana, this approach would require deliberate investment in industries capable of employing more people and adding value to locally produced resources.
Ally identified agro-processing as one area with considerable potential. Rather than exporting agricultural commodities in their raw form, Guyana could establish factories to produce packaged foods, animal feed and biofuels. Such investments could increase the value of domestic agricultural output, create employment and strengthen food security.
He also proposed developing local supply chains for housing components, machinery parts and specialised chemicals. These industries could help diversify the economy and reduce dependence on imported goods.
Technical and vocational education would be essential to this transformation. Investment in training could prepare Guyanese workers for employment in manufacturing, agricultural processing and other industries, while helping to address skills shortages that could constrain diversification.
Ally also pointed to the potential role of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Single Market and Economy (CSME) in supporting regional economic integration. Under this approach, Guyana could contribute capital, land and natural resources, while regional partners provide labour, technical expertise and other specialised skills.
He argued that closer regional cooperation could help countries combine their economic strengths, expand production and create a more integrated market for goods and services.
The region’s “25 by 2025” initiative, which sought to reduce the Caribbean’s food import bill by 25 per cent by 2025, provides another framework for cooperation. Ally suggested that Guyana could supply agricultural raw materials, while Trinidad and Tobago could contribute energy and processing capacity, supported by regional logistics hubs to facilitate distribution.
Such collaboration could strengthen regional food security while creating opportunities for industrial development and employment.
However, Ally cautioned that Guyana must manage the risks associated with a rapid expansion of oil production. These include Dutch Disease, in which a booming resource sector can weaken the competitiveness of other industries, as well as inflation, infrastructure deficiencies and shortages of skilled workers.
The attraction of higher-paying jobs in the petroleum industry could also draw workers away from agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors needed to build a diversified economy.
Guyana’s oil revenues, arable land and capacity to attract foreign direct investment provide opportunities for economic transformation. However, Ally’s argument is that these advantages must be supported by policies that promote local production, workforce development and investment beyond oil.
His central message is that petroleum wealth should serve as a foundation for broader economic development rather than become an end in itself. By applying the principles of Lewis’s dual-sector model, Guyana could use its oil revenues to build industries, create skilled employment and strengthen economic ties across the Caribbean.
The challenge, therefore, is not simply how much oil wealth Guyana accumulates, but how effectively that wealth is converted into productive capacity that can sustain development long after petroleum revenues decline.
