By GHK Lall- The issue is more moolah, some more dinero, for Guyana. A straight up, fair shuffle, 50:50 profit cut of 100 percent oil revenues minus 2 percent royalty and operating expenses. Just when Guyanese started to feel good about themselves, started drooling about extra oil money and having a party, I must be the bad guy and bruk up de party.
I brace for more than La Nina. I’m bracing for a Texas drought, followed by a Texas blackout. Talk Texas. Think Exxon. These guys didn’t get to the top of the oil world by being cowpokes. They may sound sweeter than Jimmy Stewart. Whoever is smart in Guyana had better take my advice: They are deadlier than a rattler in the bed; and Freddy Krueger under it. From here, it gets nastier.
Exxon had a good second quarter for 2026. Remember the date: July 31, 2026. It will rate in Exxon lore as one of its better days in recent years. Now Guyanese, remember this: July 31, 2026 represented something else: the first glimpses of yet another lurking Guyana tragedy. For Exxon, it was:
- US$14.5 billion in earnings
- US$23.6 billion operating cash flow
- US$17 billion plus in Free Cash Flow
Great news for Exxon. With the following two small throwaway bones for Guyana:
- 900,000 daily production barrels
- FPSO #Five projected to add 250k barrels
Amidst big, beautiful numbers for Exxon, that was the recognition for Guyana. Chief Darren Woods gave himself a fat pat on the shoulder: Exxon broke a record in recouping its investment in Guyana so early. Another big raise pending. However, not one goddamn word (or number) from Super Chief Woods about when Guyana gets closer to the much-vaunted 50:50 profit sharing from 100 percent net oil revenues. The cost bank is empty. Hence, it follows automatically that the profit-sharing formula changes from:
(100-75-2)/2 to:
100-X-2)/2 (X represent operating expenses)
When it was Moneyman Neil Hansen’s turn to share good cheer on July31st, he went overboard. He converted to his best imitation of a Talmudic scholar. Smooth and sophisticated. Profound as a Renaissance Man. He threw in the oil deal. He noted operating costs. He went from the general to the specific, after first going all over the world. I do Mr. Hansen a favor, add to his luster: behold another Bharrat Jagdeo disciple.
Money-boss Hansen went around in circles, without moving his feet. And even when he did get around to admitting it, his energy level was alarmingly low. Guyana should be in line for a 50:50 profit share. Profit share of what, Mr. Hansen, that’s the million-dollar question I table? Specifically, of what is left from the money (revenue) when Exxon is done with it? Answer it, please. Thanks to Mr. Hansen, Guyanese have a clue of where the wind blows.
According to Mr. Hansen, Exxon’s share of oil in the Stabroek Block will decline. Like hell, it will. Exxon will not allow that to happen. Seven projects already approved. Projects eight and nine have been cleverly sprayed by Exxon into Guyana’s air (and Guyanese ears). Listen for 10 and 11. Money. Money. Money. As in billions of US dollars. As in the Guyana cost bank reborn and owned by Guyana.
Meanwhile, when Guyanese pressed their most trusted partner on when their fair and full 50:50 profit share begins, that’s when Mr. Alistair Routledge donned his mask, fastened his earplugs, and disappeared. He spoke cagily. Was denser than the Dead Sea; both sea and scrolls. The man who spoke brightly about Exxon’s world-class accounting systems is suddenly talking an altogether different language. World-class, too, I assure everyone. ‘Next year. Prices. Acceleration. Significantly increase. What do those mean?
Finally, I arrive at Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo. For six years he danced with Exxon on all oil issues. Now, he has a problem. He ran out of dancefloor. Equal profit share, remember that, doc? No answer. Neither seen nor heard. Explanation A: Dr. Jagdeo is now practicing medicine. He lost interest in oil. In part three, how all of this is shaping up. To the penny, the nitty-gritty.
