Guyana’s economy continues on a trajectory of strong, broad-based economic growth, underpinned by continued expansion in the oil and gas sector, alongside robust performance across the non-oil economy. At the end of the first half of the year, it is estimated that Guyana’s overall economy grew by 7.5 percent, and the non-oil economy by an estimated 13.8 percent, representing the fifth successive year of expansion in the non-oil economy at the half-year, following the contraction in 2020. Based on the developments in the first half of the year, real GDP growth for 2025 has been revised upward to 15.2 percent overall from 10.6 percent, and 13.9 percent for non-oil real GDP up from 13.8 percent.
The 2025 Mid-Year Report confirms that this Government, led by President Ali, is committed to sustaining high growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline and safeguarding Guyana’s long-term stability, with aggressive efforts to implement its ambitious policies and programmes. Senior Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, reflecting on his 2025 Budget presentation reiterated that it provided “a clear path to ensure that the strong economic growth achieved by the domestic economy in recent years is sustained and made more resilient, and that this unprecedented economic expansion continues to be harnessed to deliver tangible and lasting benefits for all Guyanese today and for generations to come”.
Budget 2025 reiterated our Government’s aim of ensuring that the Guyanese People are equipped with the knowledge, skills, and resources necessary to take advantage of the vast opportunities being created by the rapidly transforming economy. This, in turn, will realise our objective of translating national prosperity into community, household, and individual prosperity in the long-term. In this regard, our Government continues to emphasise the empowerment of Guyanese citizens in multiple ways, including through increased opportunities for employment and entrepreneurship, access to free education at all levels, increased opportunities for home ownership, increased disposable incomes, measures to contain the cost of living, and targeted support for children, youth, women, the elderly, and the vulnerable.
The key macroeconomic highlights in the Mid-Year Report for 2025 are as follows:
ECONOMIC GROWTH
- Overall real GDP grew by an estimated 7.5 percent in the first half of 2025.
- The non-oil economy grew by an estimated 13.8 percent in the first half of the year.
- The revised full-year forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 is now 15.2 percent overall and 13.9 percent for non-oil real GDP.
SECTORAL PERFORMANCE
Agriculture, Fishing, and Forestry
The agriculture, fishing, and forestry sector expanded by an estimated 9 percent in the first half of the year:
- The sugar industry expanded by 136.7 percent when compared with the first half of 2024, with the full-year growth projection maintained at 115.4 percent.
- The rice industry grew by an estimated 13.9 percent in the first half of the year and is now expected to grow by 12.4 percent for the entire year.
- The other crops subsector is estimated to have grown by 7.4 percent in the first half, with a revised growth projection of 11.9 percent for the entire year.
- The livestock industry expanded by an estimated 11.7 percent in the first half of the year, driven by increased output across all products. The subsector is now expected to grow by 7.2 percent for the entire year.
- The forestry industry is estimated to have grown by 6.2 percent in the first half, and growth is expected to remain unchanged at 1.3 percent for the year.
Extractive Industries
The mining and quarrying sector is estimated to have grown by 5.9 percent in the first half of the year, driven by increased output across all subsectors – bauxite, gold, other mining and oil and gas.
- The petroleum subsector grew by an estimated 5.5 percent, with 115.7 million barrels of oil produced in the first six months of this year. The industry is now projected to grow by 15.6 percent for the entire year.
- The bauxite industry is estimated to have grown by 133.1 percent in the first half of the year, and the sector is now projected to grow by 65.9 percent for 2025.
- The gold industry grew by an estimated 10.9 percent in the first half of 2025, with higher declarations from the single large producer and the small- and medium-scale miners. The sector’s growth target for 2025 remains unchanged at 17.2 percent.
- The other mining and quarrying industry – which comprises sand, stone, diamonds and manganese – is estimated to have grown by 24.2 percent in the first half, driven by greater activity in the construction sector. This industry is now expected to grow by 21.2 percent in 2025.
Manufacturing, Services and Construction
- The manufacturing sector is estimated to have grown by 26.8 percent in the first half, driven by growth across all subcategories – other manufacturing, rice and sugar. The sector is now projected to grow by 14.9 percent this year.
- The services sector is estimated to have expanded by 6.6 percent in the first half of the year, primarily supported by growth in wholesale and retail trade and repairs, administrative and support services, financial and insurance activities, professional, scientific and technical services, and information and communication. The overall 2025 growth target for services is now 8.6 percent.
- The construction sector is estimated to have grown by 29.9 percent in the first half of 2025, supported by Government’s expanded Public Sector Investment Programme, along with robust private sector investments across several sectors. The sector is now expected to grow by 26.2 percent in 2025.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$10.3 million at the end of the first half of 2025, with the current account recording a surplus of US$197.9 million.
The merchandise trade balance registered a surplus of US$3,180.2 million. This mainly reflects the fact that, while crude exports grew by 2.6 percent, less favorable oil prices prevailed. Non-oil export earnings, however, increased by 12.5 percent to US$919.7 million, mainly supported by gold and bauxite expanding by US$147.5 million and US$31.1 million, respectively.
Total import payments stood at US$5,894.6 million at the end of the first half of the year, growing by 81.1 percent. Growth was mainly attributed to the expansion in the imports of capital goods, which rose to US$3,881.7 million and accounted for 95.8 percent of the overall increase. A significant portion of this increase can be attributed to the importation of the One Guyana FPSO, which valued US$2,534.1 million.
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Domestic Credit
At the end of the first half of 2025, net domestic credit stood at $1,015.5 billion, exceeding the December 2024 position by 17.7 percent. Total credit to the private sector grew by 7.7 percent to $485.4 billion at the end of the first half of the year.
- Credit to households rose by 7.3 percent to $51.8 billion, with notable growth of 20.3 percent observed in lending for motor cars.
- With respect to credit to business enterprises, there was notable growth in lending for services, manufacturing, and agriculture, of 4.9 percent, 12.4 percent, and 1.1 percent to $165.6 billion, $48.7 billion, and $31.9 billion, respectively.
- Real estate mortgages expanded by 11.4 percent to $173.5 billion, driven by increases in mortgages granted for private dwellings and industrial and commercial properties
Inflation
Consumer prices rose by 2.9 percent when compared with the end-2024 position. While energy prices – prices at the pump for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene – declined in the first half of the year, accounting for -0.2 of a percentage point, food prices increased. The prices for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene were reduced by 20.9 percent, 32.8 percent, and 34 percent, respectively, when compared with the position at the end of 2024, bringing significant relief to Guyanese producers and consumers. The 12-month inflation rate stood at 4.2 percent at the end of June and is now projected to be 3.1 percent for 2025.
The Mid-Year Report underscores Government’s wide-ranging measures to boost disposable incomes and cushion households from the impact of rising cost of living, including:
- Introducing no new taxes in Budget 2020 to 2025.
- Doubling the income-tax threshold to $130,000 per month.
- Reducing income tax rates.
- Introducing tax relief for persons with children, persons who earn overtime for work beyond their normal working hours, persons who have a second job, and persons who are paying premiums for life and medical insurance.
- Distributing a $100,000 cash grant to every adult citizen.
- Doubling old age pension (OAP) from $20,500 per month in 2020 to $41,000 now.
- More than doubling Public Assistance grants from $9,000 per month in 2020 to $22,000 now.
- Maintaining the zero percent excise tax on petroleum products to mitigate the impact of rising fuel prices globally, saving consumers $560 per gallon currently.
- Extending freight charge reductions.
- Continuing the part-time job programme.
The Report highlights that across every single sector of government activity, there has been substantial progress and development. In education, Government has advanced universal access to education, as well as expanded technical and vocational training. In health, Government completed regional hospitals, expanded diagnostic services, and continued the digitalisation of patient care systems. Further, social protection programmes, such as cash grants, school uniform grants, and increases in pension and public assistance, have directly increased disposable incomes at the individual and household level, particularly for the most vulnerable.
“Government remains committed to prudent management of our natural resources while continuing to invest in people and communities so that the benefits of our national transformation are shared by all Guyanese. While challenges and risks remain, our Government will continue to ensure that these are met with resolve, charting a steady course toward resilient prosperity.” the Senior Finance Minister noted.
To view the entire Mid-Year Report 2025, click here: Mid-Year Report 2025 or scan the QR code below.
