Op-Ed by Randy Gopaul
There’s no question that the emergence of the WIN party has stirred the political imagination of many Guyanese. For voters fed up with decades of racialized politics and the binary slog between the PPP and APNU, WIN offers a refreshing alternative, young, energetic, and aspirational. But inspiration is not enough. If we are to speak plainly and respect the intelligence of the electorate, we must admit, a WIN victory in 2025 is not only unlikely, it is mathematically implausible.
THE COLD HARD NUMBERS
I invented a scenario which proposes that WIN could pull 164,801 votes, surpassing both the PPP’s projected 159,001 and APNU’s 141,659. This win would supposedly come from peeling away 74,335 votes from the PPP, 76,261 from APNU, and mobilizing 14,205 new voters. But once you examine the regional breakdown, it becomes clear that this vision rests on fantastical assumptions that defy Guyana’s electoral history.
Region 4 – The Fantasy of a Flip
The most egregious leap in logic lies in Region 4, historically APNU’s urban stronghold. According to the projection, WIN is expected to rake in 83,194 votes here, 52,050 coming from APNU defectors and 25,779 from PPP supporters.
The reality is that the APNU doesn’t just win Region 4, they dominate it. Expecting half their base to walk away and endorse an unproven third party is political fiction. Region 4’s electoral behavior, shaped by deep-rooted loyalties and historical grievances, cannot be reprogrammed overnight, no matter how compelling a TikTok video or Instagram reel may be.
PPP Fortresses – Still Standing
Regions 3, 5, and 6 have been PPP territory for decades. In Region 6, for instance, WIN would need to pry away 13,839 PPP votes to reach their target of 17,815. But the PPP has historically pulled upwards of 75% of the vote in this region. You don’t dismantle a political fortress like Region 6 without a visible and sustained presence on the ground, and WIN, to date, has no such presence.
In Region 3, the scenario assumes 15,244 PPP defectors. That’s more than half of their 2020 support base. Again, we’re asked to believe in a total collapse of party loyalty without evidence of a political earthquake to trigger it.
New Voters and the Myth of the Silent Majority
The projection banks on 14,205 new votes, roughly 8.6% of the projected WINN total. But Guyana has not experienced this kind of surge in new voter turnout even during moments of national crisis or political transformation. Youth apathy, lack of access, and disillusionment are real barriers. Hope is not a strategy.
And while the “silent majority” argument is emotionally satisfying, it’s rarely operationalized without organizational muscle, boots on the ground, data-driven outreach, and resources. WIN has yet to demonstrate this capacity.
What Would Have to Happen
For this scenario to materialize, Guyana would need to experience;
- A historic collapse of PPP and APNU voter loyalty.
- A total breakdown of racial and regional political identity.
- A surge of new voters registering and turning out at unprecedented levels.
- A WIN campaign that is nationally organized, strategically disciplined, and emotionally resonant.
As of today, none of these conditions exist.
I am not writing this to extinguish hope, but to confront delusion. The real danger is not that WIN will lose, it’s that unrealistic expectations will produce disillusionment, reinforcing the very apathy that WIN is trying to overcome.
Winning elections requires more than vibes, slogans, and social media virality. It demands machinery, messaging discipline, and regional intelligence. It requires understanding the anxieties of a rice farmer in Essequibo, a teacher in Linden, and a vendor in Berbice, and speaking to them in a language that acknowledges both their pain and their pride.
Here’s the hard truth, WIN can’t win 2025, but it can hurt both major political parties and WIN can definitely shape 2030. If the party doubles down on community organizing, builds coalitions across civil society, and inserts itself meaningfully into national discourse, it can erode the foundations of the duopoly. If it focuses on disrupting local government contests, engaging diaspora resources, and training a new political class, it can become a real third force.
That takes time. That takes humility. That takes structure.
Elections are not won with feelings, they’re won with facts, focus, and field operations. WIN is exciting, yes. But excitement doesn’t shift power. Organization does. If WIN wants to be more than a footnote or a spoiler, it must face the numbers honestly, recalibrate its ambitions, and invest in the long haul. A better Guyana won’t be built in a flash of momentum. It will be built in the trenches.
Next week, I will discuss, “Path to a APNU coalition victory”
