What This Report Does
This report looks at the official Region 4 election numbers from 2020 and 2025. Using simple mathematics, we test whether normal turnout shifts can explain the changes in votes, or whether the results show unusual patterns that deserve closer scrutiny.
The idea is straightforward:
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If fewer people vote, each party usually loses votes in proportion to its past strength.
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We compare what should have happened under this assumption to what actually happened in 2025.
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We then measure how far the 2025 results diverge from that baseline, and whether the gaps are small (normal variation) or very large (suspicious).
The Numbers
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Turnout fell by 21,533 voters (−10.6%).
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PPP nevertheless gained 6,616 votes (+8.2%).
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The opposition lost 26,613 votes (−22.8%).
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PPP ended up with 15,168 more votes than expected if abstentions were proportional.
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The opposition fell 14,254 below expectations.
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These two figures almost cancel each other out — PPP’s unexplained gain mirrors the opposition’s unexplained loss.
Why is it Statistically Unusual?
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Counter-cyclical growth: PPP grew even as turnout shrank — the opposite of what normally happens.
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Mirror-image shifts: PPP’s gains almost exactly match the opposition’s losses, as if votes were directly reallocated.
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Outlier status: Statistical tests show the PPP surge is far beyond what random variation can explain.
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Improbable abstention pattern: Over 70% of the turnout decline would have to be concentrated among opposition voters alone — highly unlikely in real-world elections.
What does this mean?
These patterns do not prove fraud. But they match the kinds of statistical fingerprints seen in elections internationally, where manipulation was later confirmed.
The Region 4 2025 results are mathematically possible — but statistically implausible. They demand verification, recounts, and independent forensic audits before they can be accepted with confidence.
Why Transparency Matters?
Unexpected outcomes are not automatically illegitimate. But when the math looks this unusual, transparency is the only way to preserve public trust. Publishing Statements of Poll, conducting risk-limiting audits, and involving international observers are not partisan demands — they are basic safeguards for Guyana’s democracy.
