Guyana jilted China, China now juks Guyana

Guyanese know about the law of unintended consequences.  It may not be one that finds too much traction with VP Jagdeo, and AG Nandlall, but I introduce the law of unexpected reactions.  Say hello to the Chinese Dragon.

The Chinese Dragon is being squeezed, circled, backed up against a wall, and slam bang, one blow after another coming rapidly.  America, even in the time of Pres. Joe Biden, didn’t like the huge Chinese Government footprint here.  Me, too.  Chinese economic migrants, yes; the Chinese State apparatus here, NO!  There are already too many authoritarians and closet communists here, who play a good game of being American capitalists.  Regardless, the Chinese became well-embedded here, while the good times flowed between them and the PPP Government of Jagdeo.  Unlike the World Bank and IDB, the Far Easterners don’t care how loans are spent, or have much use for paper trails and transparency.  Today, the dratted Americans with their eye on taking over the world according to the revitalized presidency, have just bruk up the PPP and Chinese bridal shower.  It is over; get out of Guyana.  As if in lockstep with that Yankee symphony, there was Guyana’s gift to wisdom Excellency Ali waxing frothily about ‘special friends’ and ‘preferential treatment’.  In a brutal turn of sentiments and events, the American are in, and the Chinese are out in the snow, on their behinds.

Hold horses, everyone.  Not so fast, is my caution to Guyanese.  China is not Guyana, a country to be pushed around and kicked about, as in the days of opium wars and gunboat diplomacy.  Holding aside matters about flag and apple pie, China is a bona fide superpower, with its gaze immovably fixed on being the number one.  Some believe that it has already achieved that lofty status, with shuddering in my corner.  Cold reality confirms that China did not reach its vaunted place by being static, anemic, or idiotic.  Like Guyana is.  If the Chinese are not afforded the most favored nation status (loosely speaking) that was conferred upon it, then there is always Venezuela ripe and ready for reinvestment, planting a bigger footstep.

Tens of billions of its hard cash have been plunked down there.  If neither its money nor presence no longer has the value in GT, there is Caracas waiting.  Any friend finds welcome.  Especially now that America has taken the Guyana-Venezuela border issue and made that its own.  Breathe too hard on Guyana, and it will be a very bad day for Venezuela.  There has been rejoicing across this country, now that the PPP, Guyana, and America are one.  I like it.  What I don’t like is how the spurned and dismissed Chinese may not react too sweetly to being used by the PPP Government.  It is difficult for some people when they are jilted in that way.  There’s the ICJ vote.  Since there is no reception here, given American schemes, Venezuela now has a big Chinese Dragon for a special friend.  Worse things have happened over less palatable developments.  It must be remembered that in eastern culture, face is everything, and saving it could mean some bad things for other people.

To use a fancy phrase that Freedom House may dislike, it’s called recalibration of options.  America has its blueprint for projection of its power, and the Chinese have shown that they have their own, which is worldwide.  In times of yore, the label for that was road; today belt has worked as a well-received substitute.  Money and much more.  There is need in Caracas, and since America is shutting down one port after another in the face of the Chinese, then Caracas looks good.  It could be the means to get even, to shift things around in the region, through going from a sleeping partner to angry warrior.  Absorb that ICJ vote.  China is understood, but India, of all places?  Why is Modi upset, angling sweetly?

My own reaction to all of this hovers between concern and unsettled spirits.  The US expands its heavy shadow over Guyana, China now practically marginalized here, moving to regroup in Venezuela.  The environment looks worrying.  I have long harbored apprehensions of powerful forces aligning for Guyana and their competitors duplicating over there.  This area could become a flashpoint, with Guyana caught in the middle.  Sooner than later, a showdown could erupt somewhere.  The Straits of Taiwan stand a distant consideration.  Should the same forces redefine their positions in this region, temperatures could overheat.  Guyana has America.  Venezuela could get its China.  Let’s remember, there is that remarkable gent, Putin, casting about for a place to take a stand.  Great game all over.  Slowing down the American jugernaut has its merits.  So do 300 billion barrels of the heavy stuff in the Orinoco.