By GHK Lall- In the next several months, Guyana should be abuzz with the presence of several new political parties contesting the national elections. How many, if any, would have made any showing when the numbers are counted. Hopefully, one official count only this time. Notwithstanding their oaths to country and people, what are their odds of newcomers making a mark? For emphasis: what chance new parties?
The chances of electoral success for new political pups are slim to marginal to almost nonexistent; hinges on a confluence of developments. Electoral success, what is that one-legged beast? Three to five seats will do. Anyone thinking higher should see a sorcerer. Where are the votes, when $100,000 is in hand, a few such packets? Where is the broad interest? Where is the movement? For clean governance, genuine oil management, banishment of cult leadership and the bandwagon of vagabonds that plunder Guyana’s riches? Try these reality checks, first.
Call them whatever pleases, diehards, fundamentalists, tribalists, fanatics: dem ain goin no way but weh deh always been. The cup or the palm tree. That is, mainly Indians for the Indian party (PPP), the same with African Guyanese for African party (PNC). The elections should end there and then, and the observers could pack their bags. A straight fight between PPP and PNC. Except that the PNC and company signaling that they are not going down that readily. Often, I wonder….
To be clear, I am not asserting that every Guyanese of Indian or African descent will vote with the back of their heads. What is being advanced is that old political loyalties, regular political culture, standard political-racial-electoral voting patterns could seize the upcoming contest by the scruff of the neck and shake most of the promise of difference out of it. Whatever is left is not just out of breath and spirit. It is out of reach for new parties.
The realist in me delivers this word: foregone. The optimist thinks: whence cometh the spoiler, three-seat kingmaker? The student digs this up: what about a showstopper? Last, the pessimist broadcasts the outlier: how to detect the stealth/shadow parties that are PPP plants (like 2020), thanks to bhai Bharat-ji? Taken individually or collectively, in 2025 all electoral roads and results in Guyana leads to this terminal: shut up, select a box, sit down, and settle into a slumber.
Having said all the above, there is a number on the local electoral dashboard: 20,000. I believe it could stretch to 30,000. The outliers, the crowd of sullen and seething Guyanese voters. Educated, thinking, principled, concerned, angry, disillusioned, and impoverished. And damn-to-hell this leadership crassness (nastiness) callousness (cost-of-living), corruptions (oil weaknesses) that must be vanquished. Yeah, but who is there to grab all of them in one shot, along with any stray votes?
Hypothetically, 20,000 crossover or swing votes means three seats. It could be five, if there are 30,000 sufficiently unhappy Guyanese. There is a huge number of disillusioned Guyanese (at BJ and PPP). Those Guyanese are looking for a credible, compact, compelling alternative. Two men were once identified, but since faded.
They posed that spoiler’s presence, that grabbing of unhappy voters (frequently PPP). Study VP Jagdeo’s reaction when their names are mentioned: from ballistic to bombastic. The man is afraid; pretenses about a landslide PPP victory are of a man whistling at midnight in the graveyard. Sombaady frikken jumbee. Now a woman steps up, and if she is not stepped upon, hmm…. A contestant, an angler; or a stealth player? More will raise their hands.
Razor thin becomes razor wire. A call is made in three words -two start with capital c, another with o. Corruption, Cost-of-living, and oil. Corruption has savaged the spirits of those who care about clean governance. When some ministers serve as fronts for political princes, there is corruption nationalized. Corruption besmirches the consciences of those still holding onto theirs. Oil money (national development priorities [skullduggeries]) features prominently. Reality: corruption, c-o-l, and oil have PPP written all over them. Time will tell how much Guyanese are incensed.
With the indigenous and Venezuelan votes conveniently held in abeyance in my own ballot box, the PPP should be the biggest loser in any election by any normal consideration. Corruption, c-o-l, and oil are contributors. But will not be. One thing is certain, other than for some stragglers and desperate hopefuls, the Opposition is not positioned to benefit from PPP hemorrhages.
Too fragmented, too factionalized, too full of egos. To counter potential voter loss, local political lion king Jagdeo expanded the cash grants to overseas Guyanese. A voter replenishing act. The indigenous community has been flooded with money, bricks, boards, and bridges. Two sizable voter blocs in the PPP column. Somebody said that PNC voters will also fly to Guyana to collect Jagdeo voter incentives, make the voting equation closer.
Still, I look for that spoiler, difference maker, troublemaker, interferer, and even kingmaker role all rolled into one for those tens of thousands of disillusioned and disgruntled voters. This will come to light, depending on the orchestrations made by the standing local political mastermind and moneyman, Jagdeo. Dish out some cash, and voters forget in a flash.
There is one likely winner then: the PPP. Whether voting blocs stay home or revolt is where elections projections 2025 stand. A sure tragedy for the Guyanese people.
