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Senior Minister within the Office of the President(OP), with responsibility for Finance, Dr. Ashni Kumar Singh, on Monday last, laid over in the National Assembly, the Mid-Year Report for 2023, outlining the nation’s financial health.
In my column last week, I had committed to exploring the Master Chess move, that was executed on a national level, with the Peoples’ finances; initiated by the powers that be, masking in the process, the true economic financial health of the country, using Numbers, or Statistics, which by now, we would have established, is even more cunning and dangerous than Lies and Damned Lies, collectively.
Against the backdrop of Dr. Singh’s announcement of a 6.5% increase in pay for the salaries for public servants; together with a one (1) month bonus for the members of the Disciplined Services ( Joint Services, et al), I had promised to explore what the increase really means in light of the, now known/public ‘Official Inflation‘ Rate for the country and the updated, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate
According to Dr. Singh’s report, Guyana for the first half of the year saw, “the 12-month inflation rate in June 2023,” being recorded at 1.9 percent, lower than the 5 percent recorded in June 2022.”
1.9 percent, less than 5 percent, still leaves the documented inflation rate for the country, at the time, at 3.1 percent, among the highest in the world.
This news came together with an updated Real Domestic Growth (GDP) rate, which the Ministry “estimated” at 59.5 percent for the first half of 2023.
The Mid-Year Report for 2023, did include the caveat, “…this was largely driven by (60%) growth (experienced on the nation’s BOOKS) in the oil and gas industry; the non-oil economy also grew in the first half, by 12.3 percent.”
These Figures/Statistics were firstly prefaced with the optimistic caution, “despite the challenging external and domestic environment, the Guyanese economy continued to achieve strong positive real growth, coming from both the oil and non-oil sectors.”
The report said, this should be experienced, “…particularly in the non-oil economy, (since) strong performances have been returned by agriculture, other mining and quarrying, as well as services. In light of the continued strong performance in the first half, and the updated outlook for the remainder of the year, the overall growth projection for 2023 is now subject to a cautiously modest upward revision.”
Additionally, throughout his report, the Honourable Minister, repeatedly gave reference to exogenous factors that would have impeded, and or slowed the growth of the country which is why the report would be able to speak, legitimately, yet mask why the prices at the shops, story, and the seasons continues to “ ”
Case in point. In that report, it was skillfully included that at the end of June 2023, the consumer price index declined by 0.3 percent, when compared with the end-2022 position, compared with a 4.9 percent increase observed at the end of the first si months of last year.”
Who feels a 0.3 percent reduction in prices at the store when the already artificially conservative inde rate was already 4.9 Percent (rounded to 5 percent for clarity?
These are the little deciphers that we as a Guyanese people, should have been taught in our schools, in the fields of business, and economics, instead, we were only taught to regurgitate formulas, in order to fit into the system of things.
The 0.3 percent in prices, according to the report, was made possible by, “some reversion in the spikes observed last year, and can be attributed to lower food and energy prices.’
The report also documents that specifically, “declines were observed across multiple food categories, largely vegetables and vegetable products, and meat, fish and eggs, which fell by 6.9 percent, and 1.1 percent, respectively.”
Statistics’ generally accepted definition is a collection of information shown in numbers, which is why a report would LEGITIMATELY, include that it is noteworthy, that, “the June 2023
12-month inflation rate is in line with pre-pandemic levels. In June 2019, for example, the 12-month rate was 2.4 percent.”
As I described in my Column this past week, Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics Pt 2, the previous announcements of a 6.5% increase in pay for the salaries for public servants; together with a one (1) month bonus for the members of the Disciplined Services ( Joint Services, et al), is/was a master class move in the country’s political economics and growing geopolitical importance that has served to kerfuffle an entire nation; hats off to those where credit is due!
Today I conclude this third instalment of Lies Damned, Lies and Statistics, by revisiting a positing I espoused earlier, that when I decided to use my business experience to contribute to my homeland—as a born Guyanese who re-migrated to Guyana and launch this ‘Weekly Column Bess’ Business Benchmark/ Baseline—a sentiment that had been uttered to me recently, immediately began resonating, as if by fate; “Guyana—The fastest growing economy in the world on paper, what’s in your pocket?”
It was a strange predicament to e plain simply and quickly at the moment so I have decided to take this opportunity with the launch of this new Weekly Column Bess’ Business Benchmark/ Baseline, to firstly, attempt to e plain simply, why it is we have leaders, who can legitimately speak locally and internationally on Guyana’s growth projection on paper, but the prices at the markets, shops, supermarkets and even confectionery stands now appears to increase by the day, even as Guyana is projected to see its GDP grow at an unprecedented rate.
In concluding this third instalment of “Lies Damned, Lies, and Statistics,” I revisit a proposition I previously espoused where on deciding to leverage my business expertise to contribute to my homeland as a repatriated Guyanese, the resonance of a recent sentiment became apparent and in writing this again resonated.
Almost as if destined, the remark, “Guyana—the fastest-growing economy in the world on paper, what’s in your pocket?” still echoes in my mind.
This weekly column, “Bess’ Business Benchmark/Baseline,” aims to elucidate why our leaders can credibly e pound on Guyana’s impressive growth projections on paper, yet the costs at local markets, shops, supermarkets, and even confectionery stands seemingly escalate daily. This paradox unfolds even as the average Guyanese remains perplexed by the newly announced growth of a nation of 60% on its financial record, and a cost of living being recorded at 1.9 percent, lower than the 5 percent recorded in June 2022.”
1.9 percent, less than 5 percent, still leaves the documented inflation rate for the country, at the time, at 3.1 percent, among the highest in the world. Until next week, when we continue to explore my initial objectives with this column.
Simply put, we need to be the owners of OUR wealth, AND if our leaders will not teach us, I implore you, let’s help each other before it’s too late.
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