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Dr. Ashni Kumar Singh, the Minister within the Office of the President (OP) tasked with overseeing the Finance sector, articulated in his Budget or Financial Projections for the year 2023 that Guyana—as an oil-producing nation—is expected to continue to experience its now unprecedented growth trajectory as a country.
A country’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has traditionally been used to reflect the success or failures of government policies designed to bolster both traditional and in Guyana’s case, the emerging oil sector and the traditional economy. Consequently, these measures have contributed to a more robust and diversified growth trajectory, surpassing initial expectations.
At least this is according to Dr. Singh, who has since over the past few years repeatedly regaled this country and its citizenry with impressive figures of revenue income from its oil sector to the tune of billions of US dollars, in addition to other traditional sectors, such as Agriculture, Mining, Forestry and other high commodity exports and services, have also been credited with Guyana being touted, legitimately as the country with the fastest growing GDP growth rate anywhere in the more than 190 recognised countries worldwide.
Even the largest economies the likes of China, the United States of America and other ‘First-World’ countries.
But a chat with any Guyanese, businessman or simple hard working folks (lower,middle, or upperclass/bourgeois elite) would tell you that these glorious numbers are regaled repeatedly, again, legitimately on the local and international stage by the likes of His Excellency President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali, Vice President Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, Dr. Singh and others of similar ilk, locally and internationally, are not felt in their pockets.
When I decided to use my business experience to contribute to my homeland—as a born Guyanese who re-migrated to Guyana and launch this ‘Weekly Column Bess’ Business Benchmark/ Baseline—a sentiment that had been uttered to me recently, immediately began resonating, as if by fate; “Guyana—The fastest growing economy in the world on paper, what’s in your pocket?”
It was a strange predicament to explain simply and quickly at the moment so I have decided to take this opportunity with the launch of this new Weekly Column Bess’ Business Benchmark/ Baseline, to firstly, attempt to explain simply, why it is we have leaders, who can legitimately speak locally and internationally on Guyana’s growth projection on paper, but the prices at the markets, shops, supermarkets and even confectionery stands now appears to increase by the day, even as Guyana is projected to see its GDP grow at an unprecedented rate.
According to the internationally respected International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its official Concluding Statement following its the 2023 Article IV Mission dated September 11, 2023, said verbatim, “The Guyanese economy continues to grow very rapidly, supported by the government’s modernization plans, including the unparalleled oil sector expansion. Following record real GDP growth in 2022—62.3 percent, the highest in the world—real GDP is expected to continue to grow extremely fast in 2023 (38 percent). Oil production is ramping up with the coming on stream of a third oil field, and growth in the non-oil sector is supported by the implementation of a fast-paced public investment program focused on providing transportation, housing, and flood management infrastructure, and raising human capital. Spillovers from oil and construction are supporting growth in the services and supplies sectors, while agriculture, mining and quarrying are also performing well. After a strong 2022, in the first half of 2023 real non-oil GDP grew by 12.3 percent. CPI inflation reached 7.2 percent at end-2022, in line with other countries in the region, and declined to 1.2 percent on a y/y basis in July 2023, with the decline in transportation and communication prices. The external current account swung into a large surplus in 2022, of 23.8 percent of GDP, and another large surplus is expected in 2023. Banks are well capitalised and liquid.”
Again, all accurate and most impressive figures for a country who up until recently was considered the second poorest in this hemisphere, second only to Haiti—information coming from well respected leaders and sources.
So why is it that on paper Guyana appears to be the most impressive country in terms of its GDP Growth rate?
First, what really is the GDP and why is it now being regarded as no longer an accurate measure of the positive transformation of a country and the concomitant positive improvement in the quality of life for its people.
Gross Domestic Product simply means the Total (Gross) calculation of all of the produce (Product) within a country’s jurisdiction that earns revenue one way or another.
The ownership of that company is where the importance of understanding the true misleading nature of using growth in GDP to boast that the people of a country are better off.
What in fact happens is that the GDP produced as an official record for in this case the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, is a record of everything produced (legally of course), whether its oil, lumber, gold, bauxite, manganese, and such like, essentially anything that earns money ‘WITHIN THE JURISDICTION OF THE BORDERS’ OF THE Cooperative Republic of Guyana.
What this translates to in real terms is that the billions of barrels of oil, and the hundreds of tons of gold, and millions of cubic feet of lumber and anything of real value, is registered as produced, or simpler money earned in Guyana.
The real kicker however, is the owner. The money is registered or recorded legitimately as a statistic internationally and locally as made/earned in Guyana but the reality, the real cash or profits ends up in the hands of the owners. You are Guyanese, I am a re-migrant. Ask yourself as a citizen whyis it that Guyana is being legitimately reported as the nation with the fastest growing GDP in the entire world; a trajectory that is expected to continue on that same upward trajectory but the question still resonates across the country, filthy rich (relatively speaking of course), comfortable, or dirt poor, “Guyana—The fastest growing economy in the world on paper, what’s in your pocket?
Until Next Week, when we continue to explore Guyana’s ever changing dynamic business landscape, thoroughly and broadly delve into the deep and extensive realms of entrepreneurship and economics together in a ‘One Guyana, where we are indeed One People, One Nation, One Destiny, witha specific focus on who owns our resources and who benefits.
I am not Zenophiponic or against Foreign Direct Investment into the Country in any way, but I have also come to become a firm believer that Guyana is not a poor country. It just has poor people. It is now time that we as a Guyanese nation, the people that control the real strings power decide collectively to “Up the Ask.” Simply put, we need to be the owners of OUR wealth, if our leaders will not teach us, I implore you, let’s help each other before it’s too late.