President Ali has been busy, burns up a tremendous amount of energyin getting out Guyana’s side of the story in its now heated border controversy with neighboring Venezuela. Credit is due for effort, and I give it. The president has appealed to, and leaned on, CARICOM and the wider international community. The UN Security Council has been mentioned, and so has development partners, like China, as the president has extended his circle of appeals and engagements. I see a head of state working overtime, which is commended. Leaving aside the domestic contradictions (a later writing), there has to be a sanity check by all Guyanese, starting with His Excellency, as to what could play out, what should be expected, how such impacts Guyana.
I make a random start with China. The Chinese are very visible in Guyana, and the investment footprint is wide. It can be said with some surety that China has interests in Guyana. In the next breath, it is also accurate to assert that China has a bigger presence in next door Venezuela, a greater financial stake in our now hostile neighbors. I shouldn’t have to give anyone aid to connect dots and conclude accordingly. I encourage my fellow Guyanese to remember that old saying: this is not about friendship, it is about the bigger interests and the relationships they solidify. The best that Guyana could expect is a neutral China, considering its Venezuelan projects (and loans), which dwarfs those in Guyana. On a pure dollar to dollar basis, there is no comparison, either for projects or credits. This does not put China in a bind; it leaves Guyana with an iffy friend, which I trust that President Ali understands.
I stick with China, and head to the UN Security Council. President Ali has looked to that definitive body for some backing. It may not be forthcoming because of the math. All it takes is one vote and things grind to a stalemate. The three votes in Western hands should be in Guyana’s favor in any resolution detrimental to Venezuela, but China may be forced to abstain due to the magnitude of its interests there. So far, little has been said about Russia in this border controversy, and I believe that its vote could be against Guyana, for it also has extended decent credit to Venezuela. Considering Western pressures (and more) against Russia on Ukraine, the UN Security Council could be a lost cause for Guyana. Returning to China, it has its own differences with the US over Taiwan, and tussles in the Straits of Taiwan, South China Sea, and larger Pacific. Like Russia, China has its own concerns about enemies in its own perimeter, lake, backyard. In Venezuela, there is the opportunity for both Russia and China to stick it to the US, and right in its own sphere of influence. It could be called efforts to balance the geopolitical scales. I call it a mini version, a largely unspoken one, of the Great Game in motion right here. Unfortunately, Guyana comes out as a runner-up in all these other bigger considerations. So, when President Ali looks towards the UN and places a bet on development partners (like China), he could be whistling past the graveyard, if only to reassure himself that there are friends, and that they will rise to Guyana’s side, given the occasion.
Further, though the President hasn’t said anything pointed about our brethren in CARICOM, he cannot not know of Venezuelan overtures to the group’s members, and the responses of a few of them. My position is that that binds them closer to Venezuela than to Guyana.President lost a Barbadian sibling, and Vice President Jagdeo’s sharp spats and thrusts sent Port-of-Spain scurrying to Caracas. To paraphrase Lord Palmerston, valued interests always take precedence over blood friendships. Though CARICOM partners did find it in themselves to deliver a face-saving circling back, some damage has been done. With friends like these, Guyana could do plenty without enemies.
Regarding where America stands, the eagle has been in a watchful pose for too long. Perhaps I am mistaken, but the expectation was for some of that heightened sensitivity akin to its nonstop involvement, leadership, and energy in the 2020 elections. In comparison, the robustness of America’s stance in this Guyana-Venezuela border controversy is a little suspect, a little surprising. I agree that America has its hands full with Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, among other urgencies. But it has been much too muted in my view; other than for some initial comments and postures, America’s temperature has been lukewarm. Separately, the arrival of Chevron is one to be parsed through slowly and thoughtfully, given its enduring roots and relationships in Venezuela. What that means for Guyana remains to be seen.
Locally, the visible and audible signs of government leadership on this most existential of national issues has sparked some disturbing concerns. President Ali is beating the bushes on the international front. Meanwhile, the domestic environment is ominously quiet. It is too quiet, eerily so. Next time up, a look at leadership energies in local territory.
