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Dear editor,
Once again I have to correct disinformation being peddled by Dr. Carpen, Head of Medical Services GPHC. First and foremost I must state that I have nothing personal against Dr. Carpen rather I am feel obligated to advocate for underprivileged patients.
Now Dr. Carpen has been rebranded as the Dr. Scott Atlas of Guyana, spreading propaganda on all things Covid. While I do recognise that Dr. Carpen has his right to his opinion, he does not have the right to his own facts. To begin with, no death is acceptable, therefore I am appalled that Dr. Carpen would make comments that Guyana’s death rate is acceptable. In my humble opinion, a more acceptable phraseology would have been, “Covid fatality rates in Guyana consistent with international statistics.”
I shall now proceed to the substantive points. Firstly, absolute numbers without appreciating context is a manifestation of someone who simply regurgitates and never critical appraise. The fact is, over a five-month period under APNU+AFC, Guyana registered 430 cases and 21 deaths. In three months of the PPP Government, Guyana has registered 5,171 cases and 130 deaths. Examination of these figures, it is clear that there is an exponentially increase in number of cases and deaths, that needed to be addressed with some urgency. Therefore the nonsense about fatality rate that Dr. Carpen is alluding to is absolute nonsense. The trend is what counts. And the trend suggests that Guyana is heading off the Covid cliff since APNU+AFC was forced out of office. But Mr. Editor there is a fundamental principle Dr. Carpen failed to recognise. It is very important that when a research paper is being read that each section of it must be critically appraised. If statistics are quoted, it is imperative that they are closely examined to determine what they actually mean and not the meaning the researcher ascribe to them. As a result, I’m abundantly confident that the fatality rate, which I have not confirmed, that Dr.Carpen alluded to is not meant for the purposed he prescribed. The reason is simple. The demographics of each society is different. Italy is a country of seniors hence their fatality rate would be much higher than that of Barbados. Guyana has a very young population hence their fatality rate should be very low. My point is that fatality rate cannot not be prescriptive or used as a determinant of the effectiveness of Covid management. Fatality rates cannot cross borders because demographics are not consistent. The important factor is the trend. And the trend is that Guyana is experiencing an exponential increase in Covid cases and deaths.
Next Dr. Carpen went into this ridiculous argument that increase testing is the reason for the exponential increases in cases and deaths. That argument is fallacious nonsense. Mr. Editor, I’ve given up on Dr.Carpen so I will break this down for you and the readers. If you have a pond with 100 fishes and you fish everyday, how will this impact the catch return per day? It will start decreasing after a while. If you fish less frequently then the fishes can reproduce resulting in increasing fishing return. Dr. Carpen is stating that testing is the only factor responsible for the increased numbers. If this were the case then numbers should been decreasing by now. The virus would not have the time to reproduce and spread. That is presently not the case. Most importantly, increased testing results in increased numbers of pre-hospital patients. Increased testing will not result in Intensive care bulging at the seams with patients and exponential increases in deaths. Other factors must be at play. And these factors can be classified as either internal or external. Internal factors would include strict compliance face masks, social distancing, avoid social gathering, quarantine and isolation. All these factors aim to reduce spread to vulnerable patients who will likely end up in intensive care or die if infected. Number of cases and deaths are increasing because of poor enforcement. External factors would include ports. PPP opened all ports including airports while Covid is increasing exponentially. That’s absolutely foolish. Therefore the increase in numbers and cases is down to PPP mismanagement. It has nothing to do with increasing testing. Increasing testing will pick up the asymptomatic persons before they infect the vulnerable who will end up in ITU or die.
Then Dr. Carpen accused the previous Government of being ill-prepared for Covid with poor management, and under testing. Mr. Editor please permit me to break this foolery down. If there was under testing under APNU+AFC then asymptomatic persons would have been walking the streets to infect vulnerable patients. The result is that the number of cases, cases in ICU and deaths would be very high. The APNU+AFC numbers indicates the total opposite. As avmatter of fact, this is what we are observing with the incompetent PPP.
Finally Dr. Carpen went into cryer baby mode. Be easy on us we are only a third world country. Quit it Mahendra! Covid management is about prevention. Anti-virals, monoclonal antibodies or dexamethasone don’t reduce mortality. The only difference between a first world health service and a third world’s is the number of ventilators. My point is that face mask, social distancing, avoiding social gathering, quarantining and isolation are the mainstay of Covid management. Even the Amerindians have that. Mate wake up and stop complaining. You are doing a poor job in defending PPP.
Regards
Dr. Mark Devonish MBBS MSc Med. Ed FRCP(Edin) FRCP(Lond)
Consultant Acute Medicine
Nottingham University Hospital
UK