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Home Letters

Covid calculation confusion

Staff Reporter by Staff Reporter
December 5, 2020
in Letters
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Dear Editor,

Please permit me to respond to a piece of misinformation by Dr. Mahendra Carpen, Head of Medical Services at GPHC.

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First and foremost, in this time of Covid paranoia it is imperative that medical professionals be informed when making public statements. I do recognise that it is impossible for any given doctor to have all the information at his or her disposal. This is where research comes in to fill that gap.
Dr. Carpen reported that Guyana has a population of 800,000. Even though that is debatable but I rather not be distracted into a debate on such numbers. Then Dr. Carpen highlighted that approximately 300,000 vaccines are required. This is a grave error since two vaccines are required per one person. Hence 300, 000 vaccines would only vaccinate 150,000 persons. I am quite sure there are more than 150,000 adults in Guyana.

Then further down in the column, Dr. Carpen conflicted himself by stating approximately 250,000-300,000 persons will need vaccination. What is missing is an explanation as to how he came up with that number? Following on with his incoherent arguments, Dr. Carpen alluded to herd immunity. Then he proceeded to state that different vaccines would be used from different pharmaceutical companies. What Dr. Carpen may not be aware of is that efficacy for each vaccine varies. Secondly no vaccine has 100% efficacy. The point is that it is impossible to make a calculation of percentage vaccination required for herd with all those variables. But importantly, these vaccines have not been tested on children hence is contraindicated in that cohort and should have been highlighted by the not so good doctor.

A true specialist would have recognised these limitation and would have been pushing for a 100% vaccination in the popular albeit this may not be achieved. So Dr. Carpen just quit the nonsense of herd immunity and all fancy echolalia terms and stick to the basics. All adults need to be vaccinated, full stop.

Finally, Dr. Carpen ill-informed statement is a reflection of the catastrophic Covid mis-management under this incompetent administration.

Regards

Dr.Mark Devonish MBBS MSc Med. Ed FRCP(Edin)  FRCP(Lond)

Consultant Acute Medicine

Nottingham University Hospital

UK

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