OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
History
Founded: September 10–14, 1960, at the Baghdad Conference
Founder Members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela
Purpose: Coordinate petroleum policies among members to secure fair prices, stable supply for consumers, and fair returns for producers. Basically, acts as a cartel to manage production quotas and influence global oil prices.
Headquarters: Geneva first, then moved to Vienna, Austria on Sept 1, 1965
Key moments:
- 1973 Oil Embargo: Arab OPEC members banned exports to the US and other Israel-supporting nations during the Arab Israeli War, causing price spikes and shortages
- OPEC+ formed: Late 2016, expanded cooperation with non-OPEC producers like Russia to better control the market
- Market share: OPEC controlled ∼50% of global production in the 1970s, now ∼30% as of 2026.
Membership
Current OPEC Members – 11 countries as of May 1, 2026
The UAE announced its leaving OPEC effective May 1, 2026.
Region : Countries
Middle East : Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait.
Africa : Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon
South America: Venezuela
FORMER Members
UAE: joined 1967, exits May 1, 2026
Angola: withdrew Jan 1, 2024
Qatar: left Jan 1, 2019
Ecuador: withdrew Jan 1, 2020
Indonesia: suspended membership Nov 2016.
OPEC+ = OPEC + 11 non-OPEC producers
Non-OPEC countries: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and Brazil which joined early 2025.
OPEC members hold ∼80% of global proven oil reserves but produce ∼44% of global oil.
OPEC Secretary General as of 2026: His Excellency Haitham al-Ghais ( His DAD Ambassador FAISAL RASHEED AL-GHAIS, Kuwait Ambassador to Brazil, South American Countries, AUSTRIA, GERMANY, CHINA, and OPEC) We met many times at their MISHRIF Residence, KUWAIT with MOM Aisha & Families.)
UAE out of OPEC — confirmed.
What happened: The UAE announced April 28, 2026, it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective Friday, May 1, 2026. State news agency WAM said the decision followed a review of current/future production capacity and is based on national interest. 1fac
WHY NOW ???:
Quota frustration — OPEC limits UAE to ∼3.2M bpd, but capacity is ∼5M bpd. UAE has “been itching to pump more oil” after heavy investment.
Strait of Hormuz/ Iran war — The war that began Feb 28, 2026, shut most Gulf shipping. With exports constrained anyway, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said this was the “right time” with minimal impact on other members.
Saudi tensions — Long-running dispute over baselines. UAE pushed for higher quotas since 2021. Relations with Saudi Arabia have been “increasingly frosty.”
This decision, reported by NPR and discussed in analyses from the Baker Institute, stems from long-term FRUSTRATION with the cartel’s production limitations and DETERIORATING RELATIONS with Saudi Arabia.
Determining a “WINNER ” between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is complex, as BOTH nations are pursuing divergent but powerful strategies.
While Saudi Arabia maintains its status as the “heavyweight” of the oil market, the UAE’s exit from OPEC signals a shift toward individual flexibility that some analysts call a MAJOR BLOW to Saudi leadership.
The ongoing 2026 Iran WAR has caused significant destruction across the Gulf, including direct missile and drone strikes on Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
While the shared threat from Iran has forced a degree of operational solidarity, it has not yet mended the deep-seated political and economic RIFTS between the UAE and Saudi Arabia
The OPEC Exit: The UAE’s announcement on April 28, 2026, that it is quitting OPEC is seen as a “major blow” to Saudi leadership, signaling that the UAE is prioritizing its own economic recovery over the Saudi-led cartel’s stability.
Competition Amid RUIN. Even as iconic sites like the Burj Al Arab sustained damage, the economic race continues; Saudi Arabia is actively DRAWING foreign INVESTMENT and corporate HEADQUARTERS away from DUBAI to RIYADH.
Mending relations remains DIFFICULT DUE to a “strategic collision” in Yemen and Sudan, where the TWO countries back opposing factions.
IN the END, KSA His Excellency Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud will be the WINNER, with More OIL, RICHER, More Personal HIGH Global Relationships.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4545540/united-arab-emirates-quits-opec-alliance/
SWOT, Guyana Joining OPEC+
Points to Encourage Guyana to Join OPEC+
Arguments FOR Joining :
2019 KUWAIT Minister of OIL, ELECTRICTY, WATER and Chairman Kuwait PETROLEUM Corporation (KPC), agreed TO SPONSOR GUYANA to OPEC +, TO Amb. Dr. Shamir Ally. This OFFER was sent to Guyana Government with NO RESPONSE through 2020, when My Tenure ended.
MAY 31, 2019, KSA at 14th Islamic SUMMIT & 50th. Anniversary of Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC), KSA TOP LEADERSHIP, PROMISED, AN EXEMPTION for GUYANA, for its DEVELOPMENTAL NEEDS. Note EXEMPTIONS were granted to IRAN, LIBYA, and VENEZUELA.
GUYANA is also the 57th MEMBER at the Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah, KSA since 2016 the LAST MEMBER Admitted during the Bank’s 41st Annual Meeting held in Jakarta, Indonesia, May 15 to 19, 2016.
Price leverage: OPEC+ controls ∼41% of global supply. Coordinating with Saudi/Russia gives Guyana influence on Brent pricing vs being a price taker. When OPEC+ cuts 2M bpd, prices rise $10-15. Guyana BENEFITS without cutting.
Diplomatic cover vs Venezuela: OPEC+ includes Russia, Saudi, UAE. Membership creates political shield. If Venezuela escalates Essequibo claim, Guyana has 22 countries with stake in its stability. Prevention is BETTER than CURE.
Technical data sharing: OPEC’s JTC and Secretariat give production forecasts, market data, reservoir management best practices. Guyana’s ministry is new — access to Saudi/UAE expertise is valuable.
Market access: Long-term supply deals with China/India often flow through OPEC+ relationships. Joint marketing, refinery Joint Ventures. It is harder to access as solo 1M bpd player.
Stability signal: Markets see OPEC+ members as coordinated, not wildcatters. Could lower Guyana’s financing costs, insurance premiums for FPSOs.
Seat at the table: Decisions on cuts/hikes happen in OPEC+. Brazil joined 2025 to shape policy. If Guyana stays out, policy gets made to it, not with it.
Arguments AGAINST Joining
Quota risk: OPEC+ cuts 2020-2024 hit members hard. Guyana ramping 645k → 1.7M bpd by 2030s. Last thing it needs is Saudi telling it to shut in 200k bpd.
Lost flexibility: Non-OPEC shale grew while OPEC+ cut. Guyana can do same — produce flat-out when others restrain. Joining means giving up that arbitrage.
Geopolitical baggage: OPEC+ includes Russia under sanctions, Iran at war. Guyana is US/UK aligned via Exxon. Joining could complicate Western relations.
Small voice: With 1.2M bpd in 2027, Guyana = 3% of OPEC+. Saudi/Russia decide, others follow.
No historical grievance: OPEC founded to fight “Seven Sisters” oil majors. Guyana invited Exxon in. Different origin stories, different interests.
SWOT: Guyana Joining OPEC+
Strengths
Adds high-growth, low-cost barrels: Guyana $30 breakeven helps OPEC+ avg breakeven drop. Make cartel more competitive vs shale.
Western Hemisphere balance: OPEC+ very Middle East/Russia heavy. Guyana + Brazil + Mexico give geographic diversity, Atlantic Basin weight.
Speed + governance: Exxon execution + stable democracy. OPEC+ gets reliable new supply vs Nigeria/Libya/Iraq volatility.
Revenue upside: If OPEC+ coordination lifts Brent $5/bbl., Guyana earns $2.2B extra per year at 1.2M bpd. Pay for membership.
Weaknesses
Misaligned incentives: Guyana needs volume growth 2026-2035 to monetize before peak demand. OPEC+ goal is price > volume. Fundamental conflict.
Contract conflict: Exxon PSA requires max efficient rate. OPEC+ quotas may force breach of contract. Legal mess, arbitration risk.
Capacity to cut: Guyana has 5-6 FPSOs, no spare onshore wells. Can’t “swing” like Saudi. Cuts = shut-in entire fields. Expensive to restart.
Political timing: Essequibo dispute + 2025 election.
Opportunities
Essequibo deterrence: OPEC+ charter has no defense clause, but informal pressure matters. Russia/Saudi calling Maduro carries weight.
Gas/LNG coordination: OPEC+ starting gas discussions. Guyana’s 17 Tcf gas could align with Qatar/Russia LNG strategy.
Upgrade to full OPEC later: OPEC+ is trial run. If quotas work, Guyana could join OPEC proper, get spare capacity compensation like UAE used to.
Vision 2030 funding: Stable $80 oil from OPEC+ action de-risks Guyana’s NRF projections. Easier to budget schools, roads, power grid.
Threats
Stranded asset acceleration: If OPEC+ can’t stop peak demand, Guyana spent political capital joining a declining cartel. Missed window to pump freely.
US sanctions spillover: If Russia/Iran ties deepen, US could view Guyana as less reliable. Exxon financing, FPSO insurance gets harder.
Quota disputes: UAE left 2026 over quota fight. Iraq, Kazakhstan always cheat. Guyana joins, gets low quota, then exits anyway = reputational damage.
Dutch Disease worsened: Higher oil prices from OPEC+ membership accelerate currency appreciation. Non-oil economy dies faster.
MY STRONG RECOMMENDATIONS : Guyana’s rational move is OBERVER STATUS FIRST — like Brazil did 2016-2024. Attend meetings, share data, and NO quotas. Join only if:
Venezuela threat escalates and needs Diplomatic cover.
OPEC+ offers quota exemption until 1.7M bpd reached, like Kazakhstan RECEIVED.
IF Price war looms and Guyana need cartel protection
Otherwise, stay out and FREE-RIDE . Let Saudi/Russia cut while Guyana pumps. That HAS been the US shale playbook since 2016, and it worked.
My 3-Point Pitch to Guyana’s Minister: Why Join OPEC+
Use these at the Vienna meeting. Short, DIRECT, and hits Guyana’s core interests.
Point 1: Protect Your Oil Wealth From Price Wars
“Minister, Guyana is going from 0 to 1.7M bpd in 10 years. That’s $35B/year at $70 oil. But one price war and Brent hits $40 — you lose $13B/year overnight.
OPEC+ exists to prevent that. When COVID hit in 2020, coordination kept oil from staying at $20. When shale overproduces, OPEC+ cuts to balance.
Guyana free-riding works until it does not. Join as a ‘GROWTH MEMBER ’ with QUOTA EXEMPTION until you hit 1.7M bpd. Guyana receives price insurance without sacrificing ramp-up. Saudi has done this for Kazakhstan. KSA can do it for Guyana.”
Why it lands: Hits budget stability + NRF funding. Guyana’s Vision 2030 collapses if oil crashes during ramp-up.
Point 2: DIPLOMATIC Shield for Essequibo
OPEC+ is not NATO, but 23 countries have a financial stake in your stability. Venezuela knows that.
Guyana + Exxon, Caracas sees a small state with a US company. If you are Guyana + OPEC+, an attack on Essequibo is an attack on 41% of WORLD oil supply.
Russia, Saudi, UAE, Brazil — they WILL call VENEZUELA before the US even schedules a UN meeting. Brazil joined in 2025 for the same reason: OPEC+ membership is DETERRENCE. GUYANA RECEIVES PROTECTION without firing a shot.
Why it lands: Essequibo = 100% of Guyana’s oil. SECURITY INSURANCE beats any QUOTA argument.
Point 3: Seat at the Table, Not Menu Item
Right now, policy is made to Guyana. OPEC+ cuts 2M bpd, Brent rises $15, you benefit — but you had zero say.
In 2028 GUYANA WILL be 1.2M bpd, bigger than Algeria, Libya, Nigeria. Too big to ignore, too small to dictate.
JOIN NOW, shape the rules while still growing. Push for ‘non-OPEC growth allowance’ in the charter. Get data, market intel, and refinery Joint Ventures from Aramco ( Saudi Arabian Oil Company) and ADNOC ( Abu Dhabi National Oil Company)
BRAZIL WAITED 8 years and entered with no leverage. GUYANA can enter early and write terms.
Why it lands: Sovereignty + upside. Guyana wants respect, not handouts. This frames OPEC+ as leverage, not submission.
With MY HIGHEST OF RESPECT in CLOSING: Hon. Minister, we are not asking Guyana to cut 1 barrel today. We ARE asking YOU to help WRITE THE RULES FOR TOMORROW. OBSERVER first, full member with growth EXEMPTION second. Your 11B to 33B barrels deserve a vote.
DRAFT MEMORANDUM
To: U.S. Ambassador to the Cooperative Republic of Guyana
From: Ministry of Natural Resources, Guyana
Date:
Subject: Guyana’s Potential Observer Status in OPEC+ — Alignment with U.S. Interests
Purpose
Guyana is evaluating “OBSERVER STATUS O” in OPEC+ to advance national interests. We seek to ensure full transparency with our U.S. partners and confirm this step strengthens, not undermines, U.S.-Guyana strategic cooperation.
What Guyana Is NOT Doing
NO production cuts: Observer status carries no quota obligations. ExxonMobil’s Stabroek ramp-up to 1.2M bpd by 2027 continues unchanged.
NO anti-U.S. policy alignment: Guyana will explicitly state it opposes any OPEC+ action designed to harm U.S. consumers or energy security.
NO contract changes: Existing PSAs with ExxonMobil/Hess/CNOOC remain under U.S./Guyana law. OPEC+ has no jurisdiction over Stabroek operations.
Why This Benefits U.S. Interests
- Energy Market Stability = Permian Stability
Boom-bust oil cycles destroyed 200k+ U.S. jobs in 2015 and 2020. OPEC+ coordination since 2016 has reduced volatility. A stable $65-80 Brent keeps Permian Basin drilling and keeps Guyana’s NRF funded. Guyana inside OPEC+ argues against price spikes and for market-driven supply. That aligns with U.S. producers.
- Counterweight to Russia/Iran Inside the Bloc
OPEC+ exists with or without Guyana. Today, Russia + Iran shape policy alongside Saudi. Brazil joined in 2025 as a democratic counterweight. Guyana’s participation adds a SECOND Western Hemisphere democracy with deep U.S. ties. This dilutes adversarial influence and gives the U.S. an informal channel into OPEC+ deliberations.
2. Blocks Chinese Bilateral Leverage
China is actively seeking 30-year off-take deals with new producers. OPEC+ membership puts Guyana’s barrels under multilateral quota rules, not bilateral deals with Sinopec/CNPC. This firewalls Guyana from Chinese energy dominance and keeps ExxonMobil as lead operator. That is a direct U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY WIN.
3. Essequibo Deterrence
Venezuela’s claim covers 100% of Stabroek. OPEC+ includes 23 nations with a financial stake in Guyana’s stability. An attack on Essequibo becomes an attack on 41% of global oil supply. This supplements, not replaces, U.S. Southern Command security cooperation.
Safeguards for U.S. Relationship
Growth Exemption: Guyana will only join if granted written exemption from cuts until 1.7M bpd is reached, similar to Kazakhstan precedent. KUWAIT TO SPONSOR GUYANA.
Red Lines Public: Guyana will state on record: “We will not support cuts that damage U.S. energy security.
Continued Alignment: Guyana remains committed to IEA cooperation, UN votes with U.S., and transparent NRF governance per Santiago Principles.
Exxon Briefed: ExxonMobil has reviewed and supports observer status as a stabilizing mechanism for long-term investment.
Request
We request continued U.S. support for Guyana’s sovereign decision-making on energy policy. Observer status is a technical, not geopolitical, step. It makes Guyana a more reliable, stable partner for the U.S. in the hemisphere.
Guyana values its partnership with the United States above all others. This move protects ExxonMobil’s investment, deters Venezuela, and keeps China out. We believe that is an “America First” energy outcome.
We welcome further discussion at your convenience AND be Assured of our Highest Consideration.
Guyana Oil Sector — SWOT Analysis 2026
Strengths
Massive new reserves: Stabroek Block = 11B+ barrels found since 2015 by Exxon. Went from 0 to 645k bpd by Feb 2025. Fastest production ramp in history. As of April 2026, over 130 wells have been drilled offshore Guyana since the country’s FIRST major discovery in 2015. This rapid exploration, led primarily by a consortium including ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC, has transformed Guyana into one of the world’s most significant new oil provinces. Back Channels reportedly 33B+ barrels.
Light, sweet, cheap offshore: Liza crude = 32° API, low sulfur. Breakeven ∼$25-35/bbl. offshore. Competitive with Saudi costs, way below US shale
Low population, high upside: 800K people, ∼0.8 bpd per capita at current output. Oil revenue per person is already higher than UAE if fully captured.
Stable contract terms: Production Sharing Agreements with Exxon/Hess/CNOOC. Politically stable, English law.
Non-OPEC freedom: No quotas, no cuts. Can produce flat-out while OPEC+ members restrict output. Captures market share during OPEC+ cuts.
Weaknesses
Dutch Disease risk: GDP jumped 62% in 2022, 38% in 2023 from oil. Economy could overheat. Non-oil sectors like agriculture and gold mining are becoming uncompetitive.
Single basin dependence: All production from Stabroek. No diversification across fields. FPSO outage or reservoir issue hits national budget hard
Weak institutions: Sudden oil wealth + limited bureaucratic capacity. Risk of corruption, mismanagement. Natural Resource Fund only created 2019.
Infrastructure gap: NO refinery, NO deep-water port expansion yet. Exports are all crude. Power grids, roads, and schools can’t absorb oil money fast enough.
Environmental + legal exposure: Exxon lawsuits, offshore spills risk. Venezuela border dispute over Essequibo region = 2/3 of Guyana. Real security threat
Opportunities
Production growth: Exxon targeting 1.2M bpd by 2027, 1.7M bpd by early 2030s. Would make Guyana top 15 producer globally with <1M people.
Gas development: ∼17 Tcf gas found. You can power domestic grids, LNG exports, or petrochemicals. Ends blackouts, cuts energy costs.
Sovereign Wealth Fund: Natural Resource Fund had $3.1B end 2024, projected $20B+ by 2030. Norway model if managed well.
Regional hub potential: Port, logistics, services for Suriname, Brazil offshore. Georgetown could be Houston of South America
OPEC/OPEC+ leverage: Everyone wants Guyana in their camp WITH Saudi/Russia Diplomatic cover.
Threats
Venezuela claim: Venezuela claims Essequibo region = 74% of Guyana + 100% of offshore oil. ICJ case ongoing. Military risk if Venezuela acts, especially post-Maduro removal 2026.
Oil price crash: At 1.2M bpd, budget breakeven ∼$40 oil. If Brent hits $50 for years, Vision 2030 plans collapse. No economic buffer yet
Energy transition: If demand peaks 2030, Guyana has 10–15-year window to monetize 11B bbl. Stranded asset risk if too slow.
Contract RENEGOTIATION PRESSURE : Public wants bigger share than current ∼50/50 PSA. If Guyana tears up Exxon deal, FDI dries up like Venezuela.
Climate + ESG: New offshore oil in 2026 faces financing headwinds. Insurers, banks pulling back. World Bank is limiting fossil fuel funding.
The Guyana paradox: Best oil economics of any new producer — 11B bbl., $30 breakeven, 800k people. But also, most geopolitically exposed.
IF GUYANA manages the NRF like Norway and avoids Venezuela conflict, Guyana becomes QATAR of South America by 2035. IF IT GETS Dutch Disease + Border War, it WILL BE ANGOLA 2.0.
