Guyana’s foreign-exchange figures are raising a harder question than the Government’s headline claim of increased supply: if US$3.115 billion in foreign currency moved through the financial system during the first six months of 2026, why are commercial banks still reporting more than US$200 million in unmet demand?
President Irfaan Ali presented the figures on September 19, saying foreign-currency availability jumped 27.7 per cent, from US$2.440 billion during January-June 2025 to US$3.115 billion during the same period this year. Commercial banks purchased US$2.279 billion, up from US$1.798 billion, while foreign-currency injections rose from US$642 million to US$836 million.
Those numbers establish that more dollars are entering the system. They do not, by themselves, explain why legitimate demand is still going unmet.
That gap is the central issue the Government now has to answer.
Ali attributed much of the pressure to changing consumer behaviour, business expansion and increasing transactions requiring U.S. dollars. Credit-card settlements, he said, rose from approximately US$140 million in 2024 to US$430 million in 2025 and had already reached about US$356 million in 2026.
“That is a type of growth and difference we’re talking about. That’s just one indicator of changing patterns,” Ali said.
But describing the demand as evidence of changing consumption does not resolve the underlying foreign-exchange problem. It leaves unanswered who is getting the available dollars, who is not getting them, and why.
Where are the dollars going?
The Government is now examining the structure of demand, including large regional and multinational companies.
Ali specifically raised the issue of companies repatriating profits while simultaneously seeking additional foreign exchange to finance capital expenditure in Guyana.
“So, you take your profit out with US dollars, and then there’s a second demand on US dollars for a capital expenditure,” he explained.
He also said officials are investigating whether foreign currency acquired in Guyana could be used to finance activities elsewhere. Importantly, Ali did not say such “misdirection” had been established; he said the analysis was continuing.
That investigation could prove more revealing than the Government’s focus on consumer spending.
A foreign-exchange shortage in an economy generating substantial oil revenues raises questions about allocation, corporate transactions, imports, profit repatriation and the effectiveness of the mechanisms through which dollars reach businesses and consumers.
Demand keeps being carried forward
Commercial banks have reportedly told the President that some requests remain outstanding from earlier months.
“They have said to me that there were unmet demand from earlier this year. So there is some carry-forward of demand every month because they are not meeting their monthly demand,” Ali said.
That admission complicates the Government’s effort to portray the situation primarily as a consequence of rising consumption.
If demand is repeatedly being carried forward, the issue is not simply that Guyanese are spending more. It also concerns the capacity and mechanisms of the foreign-exchange market to satisfy demand as it arises.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had already identified strong foreign-exchange demand as an issue in Guyana, noting in its 2025 Article IV assessment that the Bank of Guyana had intervened by selling foreign currency and that the gap between official and market exchange rates had been widening. The IMF also warned that overheating and imbalances would require close monitoring.
US$1.575B more demand coming
Pressure is unlikely to ease immediately.
Ali estimates foreign-currency demand at US$1.575 billion between September 10 and the end of December—US$354 million for the remainder of September, followed by US$385 million in October, US$400 million in November and US$436 million in December.
The Government therefore faces a straightforward accountability question: in an economy awash with foreign-exchange earnings, why are businesses and other users still carrying unmet dollar demand from one month into the next?
Rising supply is important, but it cannot be the end of the explanation.
The public also needs greater transparency on how the US$3.1 billion is being allocated, the categories generating the outstanding US$200 million demand, the scale of profit repatriation and capital expenditure by major companies, and whether any foreign exchange is being diverted from its intended purpose.
Until those questions are answered with data, “changing consumer behaviour” risks becoming an explanation for the symptoms rather than an account of the underlying problem.
