The Exxon juggernaut rolled, had a great second quarter 2026. Guyana had a hand in the company’s numbers, with its teeny-weeny 900,000 barrels a day. The big news from this side of the Americas is that Exxon has been repaid to the penny its US$55 billion investment. Thanks for the jumpstart, all those projects humming, all those barrels churning out day after day. Soon, Guyana will be in that exclusive club: a million barrel a day oil producer. But at what a cost! What has been straight with Exxon (and this PPP Govt)? What can be trusted when no one can speak straight, give that sense of comfort, because their words ring of reliability? It is against this backdrop that I offer a stripped-down version of what 50:50 profit sharing could look like. To put my money where my mouth is, this is where I stand.
Please give a look at this barebones scenario in which I use one barrel of oil. For purposes of conversation, the price is US$100 a barrel. From production of one barrel of oil there’s revenue of US$100. Gross revenue it is called. I warn that from here on the wicket gets sticky. There is that beast-an 800-pound gorilla-in the room and at the head of the table. It is what’s called OPERATING EXPENSES. Given Guyana’s history in the last six years with oil, with Exxon’s accounting, my expectations are low. By such time that Exxon’s world-class number crunchers are done with Operating Expenses, US$100 is not US$100. It is not US$90 nor US$80 nor US$70. I stake my ground, draw my line. Guyana will be lucky if it ends up with Gross Oil Revenue of US$100 minus Operating Expenses at US$65. I see it as being more at around US$60 in Net Oil Revenue. This is the magic, mystery, and monstrosity of Operating Expenses. I pause for a moment.
Recall I’m dealing the hand that Exxon itself has displayed to this country. Strange postures. Evasive language. Shadowy numbers. Recall a maagah US$214 million in audit findings and those two glaring developments associated with it. By some mysterious hand, US$214 million fell to US$3 million overnight. Second, that relatively small amount of US$214 million (for Exxon) has been held up for several years now. No comment from me on this. I don’t have to say one word, since both the US$214 million and years speak for themselves. Now let this be said: I think that Exxon may think nothing of taking care of bumps in its way whenever money is involved. Even when the amount of money is minute. Now think of what to expect when billions are in play. When Operating Expenses mutate into a monster that is turned into a weapon against Guyana’s interests.
Having said very clearly where I am, and how I envision 50:50 profit sharing will materialize, I return to Net Oil Revenue now standing at US$60. It has to be divided in two. Exxon gets US$30 and Guyana collects US$30. The Guyana Government gets an opportunity to expound on the Exxon relationship and the trusted partnership. The Guyanese people should be happy. All’s well that ends well. Not so fast, folks. There is that lovely consideration that is not going away, and which no Guyanese should forget. Who pays Exxon’s taxes? Guyana does. However that is schemed, whatever the form it takes, no matter how spun or swung, this is set in stone: Guyana pays Exxon’s taxes. Or to put it better still: Exxon does not pay a dime of the taxes that it incurred. Immediately this could be seen for the imbalances that are embedded.
Exxon has Guyana over a barrel (no pun) with Operating Expenses. Then, Guyana is under the gun with the taxes and that farce about tax certificates. Conclusion: In my single barrel presentation, this much should be obvious: Guyana’s US$30 (half cut) and Exxon’s US$30 (whatever that percentage) are not the same. It shouldn’t surprise, therefore, that the 50:50 profit sharing language of Exxon is so studiously, so painfully, careful. Think of what’s afoot.
