(Newsweek)-The United States and Iran both have portrayed this week’s ceasefire as their own victory, but the biggest winner behind the scenes could be China.
Beijing on Tuesday was credited openly by President Donald Trump, who said he believed the Chinese leadership helped bring about the two-week truce with Iran in the sixth week of war in the Middle East. Whether it holds is another matter.
It was a positive signal to take into Trump’s upcoming state visit to China, scheduled for mid-May. Trump is the last U.S. leader to visit Beijing, back in 2017.
The Chinese government said it welcomed the pause in fighting, which has spiked crude oil and natural gas prices amid a weekslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran‘s Revolutionary Guards.
“Since the fighting began, China has worked actively to help bring about an end to the conflict,” Liu Pengyu, China‘s embassy spokesperson in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek. “Foreign Minister Wang Yi has spoken with foreign ministers of relevant countries 26 times, including two times with the Iranian Foreign Minister.”
China dispatched a special envoy to the Middle East and in late March released a five-point peace plan with Pakistan.
“We hope that the parties concerned will seize this opportunity for peace, bridge their differences through dialogue, and bring an end to the hostilities as soon as possible,” said Liu. “As a responsible major country, China will continue playing a constructive role and making positive contribution to restoring peace and tranquility in the Gulf and Middle East region.”
The Ideal Candidate
China’s role as a peacemaker in the Iran war was perhaps no surprise. its relationship with Iran goes beyond its purchase of over 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. The two governments also share long-running diplomatic and defense ties, although Chinese-made military equipment, including air defense systems purchased by Tehran, did little to stop the U.S. and Israeli military’s heavy bombardment.
In New York on Monday, the U.N. Security Council failed to adopt a resolution submitted by Bahrain seeking security guarantees in the Strait of Hormuz, after vetos by China and Russia. Fu Cong, the Chinese ambassador, said the text did not “capture the root causes and full picture of the conflict,” adding that ”the United States is openly threatening the very survival of a civilization.”
China—Iran’s largest trading partner—made the key intervention that helped secure the ceasefire, according to The New York Times, in a possible boost to its peacemaking credentials. It has not released details about its push for a ceasefire and exactly what type of pressure it exerted on Tehran remains unclear.
Beijing’s partners in the Middle East would have been eager to see it lend a hand in diplomatic efforts where the U.S. previously had failed to make a breakthrough, not least because China imports about half its oil and nearly one-third of its gas from around Persian Gulf.
At the same time, Iran’s new leaders appeared to be left with few good options, having all but alienated its previous negotiating partners Qatar and Oman with drone and missile strikes on their critical energy infrastructure. It means the world should not expect Beijing to repeat the feat elsewhere, such as with Russia in Europe.
“I don’t see China as seeking opportunities to play the role of powerbroker around the world. Beijing is more likely to play an active role when an ongoing conflict threatens Chinese interests in a major way and China has substantial leverage,” said Bonnie Glaser, manager director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington think tank.
“Beijing likely weighed in to press Tehran because of China’s stake in preventing further escalation and a protracted conflict that would harm Chinese interests. Beijing wants Iran to survive and continue to sell oil to China at a low price,” Glaser told Newsweek.
“Beijing’s interests are not directly threatened in the same way in the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. Moreover, Xi Jinping is likely less inclined to pressure Moscow than Iran, especially since Putin has not shown any interest in a ceasefire or mediated resolution, unlike Tehran,” she said.
After the War
As the U.S.-Iran talks move toward the possibility of securing a long-term peace deal, China may yet benefit in another way—by becoming one of the first names on the list to help rebuild Iran when the war is over.
China is already a vital economic partner for Iran, having signed it up to President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure export program in 2016. It is in prime position to introduce not only its physical infrastructure, but also its latest technology into Iranian cities.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in an X post on Wednesday that China, among others, had extended “invaluable and all out support towards reaching the ceasefire.” Sharif’s government will host peace talks in Islamabad planned for Saturday.
What becomes of Iran’s “toll booth” in the Strait of Hormuz is still unknown and could become a sticking point in the wider talks. Trump has already said a “joint venture” could keep traffic in the strait flowing, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guard wants the ultimate say.
The Financial Times newspaper reported on Wednesday that Iran was demanding $1 per barrel of oil that passes through the strait, to be paid in cryptocurrency.
Even before discussion on the toughest issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program, differences remain over the ceasefire itself and particularly over Israeli operations against Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. The United States and Israel say those are not covered.
