Newsweek – Venezuela is preparing for a potential U.S. attack by deploying decades-old Russian-made weapons and planning a guerrilla-style defense aimed at creating chaos, according to sources and documents obtained by Reuters.
Whether Venezuela’s response is successful depends on the definition of success, Fulton Armstrong, who spent nearly 30 years in various U.S. government positions, many of which focused on Latin America, told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
Tensions between Venezuela and the United States remain high following recent U.S. airstrikes on cartel-operated vessels allegedly linked to Caracas, and, as satellite photos have shown, U.S. warships have been positioned for a potential strike against Venezuela—though President Donald Trump indicated earlier in November that he does not plan to launch a strike inside the nation.
The two countries are longtime adversaries. The new report from Reuters provides more details about how Venezuela could try to resist an attack from the U.S., though the strategy does reflect what insiders describe as a tacit acknowledgment of the country’s weakened military, which suffers from shortages of personnel, training and equipment.
What to Know
President Nicolás Maduro has accused U.S. President Donald Trump of seeking to overthrow him after Trump suggested possible ground operations following a military buildup in the Caribbean.
According to Reuters, Maduro’s government is betting on a so-called “prolonged resistance” campaign and an “anarchization” plan that would rely on small military units, militias and intelligence forces to wage sabotage and street unrest if the United States were to invade.
The strategy of “anarchization” would use intelligence services and armed supporters to create disorder in Caracas and make the nation ungovernable, Reuters reported. The two strategies are “complementary,” and it’s unclear when they would be deployed. Reuters reported that its sources said the strategies did face “long odds of success,” as the nation is not prepared for a conflict against the U.S.
The military in Venezuela has faced challenges, including low pay for soldiers and old equipment that would make it difficult for the country to respond, Reuters reported. Soldiers are only paid $100 per month, and much of their equipment was made by Russia and has been around for decades, according to the report.
Trump’s actions in the Caribbean have centered around his concerns about the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. Strikes carried out in the region have been focused on targeting individuals accused of drug trafficking. U.S. officials have referred to those individuals as “narco-terrorists,” though some critics have questioned whether the strikes are legal.
Whether the response is successful depends on the definition of success, Fulton Armstrong, who now works as a professor of American University’s School of International Service after serving in various government roles across 30 years, including National Intelligence Officer for Latin America, told Newsweek.
“The U.S. has shown repeatedly that it can overthrow governments, blow up government buildings, and install a president to our liking. As Reuters says, the Venezuelan military isn’t going to fight on our terms; it’ll be destroyed,” he said.
Venezuelans will “indeed mount a clever campaign of sabotage, sniper attacks, and political operations to undermine the U.S. military and what they consider the ‘puppets’ we will install,” he said.
An attack by the U.S. would likely “fuel enough pockets of nationalistic fervor that either U.S. forces or pro-U.S. forces are going to feel a swarm of bees when they leave their little safe zones,” he said.
The administration does not appear to prefer a “boots on the ground” approach, he added.
“They’re hoping that huffing and puffing off the coast will signal to unhappy military officers to rise up, and for individuals that the Admin seems to think have been recruited by U.S. intel to lead the uprising, to remove Maduro from power,” he said, noting that “hasn’t worked so far.”
What People Are Saying
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said in statements to Al Jazeera Arabic on Sunday: “Venezuela is on alert today, but at the same time it enjoys peace, stability, and economic growth. Venezuela is strengthening its relations with all countries of the world and asks only for its independence and sovereignty.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X on Friday: “As we’ve said before, vessel strikes on narco-terrorists will continue until their poisoning of the American people stops.”
Luis Moreno Ocampo, former chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) told the BBC earlier in November: “These are criminals, not soldiers. Criminals are civilians. They are criminals, and we should do better at investigating them, prosecuting them and controlling them, but not killing people.”
What Happens Next
Trump hasn’t confirmed official military plans in Venezuela, and leaders in Caracas have downplayed the possibility of conflict, but tensions between the two countries remain high.
