JAMAICA | The Great Political Comeback? Mark Golding and the PNP Seem to be Rising from the Ashes

MONTEGO BAY,  Jamaica – A political earthquake is shaking Jamaica, and the tremors are spelling opportunities for the People’s National Party. In the heat of Jamaica’s political season, and national elections just about two weeks away on September 3, something extraordinary is unfolding.

Today, Nomination Day across the island has seen a tremendous support of orange clad  PNP party stalwarts for the nomination process, in all 63 constituencies.

And while Prime Minister Andrew Holness continues to bask in the perceived security of incumbency, it is apparent that Opposition Leader Mark Golding is orchestrating one of the most dramatic political comebacks in recent Jamaican history.

General Secretary Dr. Dayton Campbell, noted that while there were challenges in a few constituencies, it was generally a smooth process. He declared, “Today’s nominations mark the beginning of the final leg of our journey toward victory.

Every single PNP candidate was successfully nominated, and we stand united, ready, and committed to building a fairer, more just Jamaica under the leadership of Mark J. Golding.”

The nomination day proceedings were filled with vibrant, peaceful demonstrations of support from thousands of comrades across the country, reflecting the growing momentum and energy of the People’s National Party

The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Stunning Reversal Is Unfolding

The latest Don Anderson RJR/Gleaner polling data reads like a political thriller in real-time. In just three months—from May to August 2025—Golding is engineering a masterpiece of political resurrection that is leaving the Jamaica Labour Party scrambling to understand what is hitting them.

Consider the magnitude: Golding’s favorability isn’t just improving—it is exploding by 8.4 percentage points, catapulting from a dismal 30.1% in May to a robust 38.5% in August.

This isn’t gradual growth; this is a political phoenix rising from what many are writing off as electoral ashes.

Meanwhile, Holness is managing a respectable but modest 3.4-point gain. The result? A leadership race that is being completely transformed. What was once a commanding 7.3-point advantage for the Prime Minister is being slashed to a razor-thin 2.5 points—well within any margin of error.

The Net Favorability Revolution Is Underway

But here’s where the story is becoming truly electrifying for PNP supporters: the net favorability ratings are telling an even more dramatic tale of reversal.

In May, the two leaders were virtually deadlocked in net positive ratings—Holness at +7.2% and Golding at +7.4%.

Fast-forward to August, and Golding is now commanding a crushing +11.5% net favorability versus Holness’s diminished +4%. That’s a staggering 7.5-point advantage for the Opposition Leader.

This isn’t just improvement—this is political dominance in the making.

The PNP’s Perfect Storm of Opportunity Is Building

The polling is revealing multiple winds filling the PNP’s sails:

Becoming Less Polarizing, More Appealing: While the JLP is facing the curse of incumbency with high unfavorability ratings (40.5%), the PNP is enjoying significantly lower opposition at just 30.9%.

This is positioning them as the party of unity rather than division.

Golding’s Growing Likability Factor: The Opposition Leader’s unfavorability is remaining remarkably low at 27%, compared to Holness’s concerning 37%. In politics, being less disliked often matters more than being more loved.

The Incumbency Trap Is Closing: Every poll is confirming that Holness is generating more polarizing reactions—a classic sign of incumbency fatigue. After years in power, the JLP is accumulating the inevitable wear and tear of governing.

A Party That Is Positioning Itself for Victory

The broader party dynamics are painting an even rosier picture for the PNP. While the JLP is clinging to a meager +0.1% net favorability—essentially neutral ground—the PNP is boasting a healthy +4.5% net positive rating.

This is suggesting that Jamaicans aren’t just warming to Golding personally; they are reconsidering the PNP brand entirely.

The X-Factor: Jamaica’s Swing Voters Are Up for Grabs

Perhaps most crucially for PNP strategists, roughly 19% of voters are remaining uncommitted—a massive pool of potential converts.

In an evenly divided political landscape where the major parties are separated by mere decimal points (40.6% JLP vs 35.4% PNP favorability), these undecided voters are representing the kingdom keys.

The PNP’s lower polarization ratings are suggesting they may be better positioned to win over these crucial swing voters who often shy away from divisive political brands.

The Momentum Is Building

Political momentum is like a river—once it starts flowing in one direction, it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse. Golding’s summer surge is representing exactly this kind of momentum shift.

From the depths of May’s 30.1% favorability to August’s commanding net favorability lead, the trajectory is suggesting a party and leader hitting their stride at precisely the right moment.

Speaking about today’s nomination process “Party President Mark J. Golding hailed the day as a powerful demonstration of the Party’s readiness, “Today we confirmed a full slate of outstanding candidates, men and women of integrity, vision, and commitment to service. They represent the very best of our movement.

The People’s National Party is united, energised, and determined to deliver a government that prioritises fairness, opportunity, and dignity for every Jamaican,” the PNP release said.

The Road Ahead: Opportunity Is Knocking

For the PNP, these numbers are representing more than statistical improvements—they are signaling a genuine opportunity to reclaim Jamaica House. The combination of Golding’s personal resurgence, the party’s improving brand, and the JLP’s increasing polarization is creating a political environment ripe for opposition victory.

The August polling isn’t just resetting the political landscape; it is rewriting the script entirely. Where once the PNP appeared to be fighting an uphill battle against an entrenched incumbent, they are now finding themselves in the enviable position of being the less polarizing, more likeable alternative to a government showing signs of fatigue.

The stage is being set. The momentum is building. The PNP’s time may very well have come .

WiredJA