Oil Boom Powers Guyana to 10.3% Growth in 2025 — But Nearly Half the Nation Still in Poverty

Guyana is once again leading the Latin America and Caribbean region in projected economic growth, with the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecasting a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 10.3% in 2025.

The projection, contained in ECLAC’s Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, positions Guyana as the fastest-growing economy in the region by a wide margin, with other Caribbean nations expected to grow by just 1.8% next year and 1.7% in 2026. The regional outlook remains subdued due to factors such as the slowing U.S. economy, falling demand for travel, high energy import costs, and heightened vulnerability to natural disasters.

“Guyana stands out as a significant outlier in the region, maintaining high growth rates thanks to continued investment in the hydrocarbons sector,” the report stated. Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, presenting the findings last week, said the country’s oil boom is reshaping its economic trajectory, calling it “a unique and revolutionary case.”

Guyana’s extraordinary growth is driven almost entirely by massive oil and gas production, which shields it from the economic headwinds affecting its Caribbean neighbours. The report underscores that sustained investment in hydrocarbons will keep the country on an upward trajectory in the coming years.

Yet, behind the headline numbers lies a sobering reality: prosperity from the oil sector has yet to significantly alter the daily lives of nearly half of Guyana’s citizens. According to a recent World Bank report, at least 48% of the population lives in poverty — surviving on less than US$5.50 (approximately G$1,200) per day. Some experts believe the number may be higher given Guyana’s poor data gathering techniques. This pervasive poverty persists despite the rapid expansion of the national economy, raising concerns about whether the benefits of oil wealth are reaching the wider population.

Economists have warned that without targeted social programmes, investment in education and infrastructure, and diversification beyond oil, the wealth gap could deepen, exacerbating inequality. ECLAC’s report also stresses the need for “transformative investment” and long-term resource mobilisation to ensure that high growth translates into sustainable and inclusive development.

For now, Guyana remains an economic outlier in the Caribbean — a country experiencing some of the fastest growth rates in the world, while nearly half its people still struggle to meet basic needs.