Political analyst Dave Welsh has raised serious concerns over the integrity of Guyana’s electoral system, pointing to the country’s bloated voter registration list as a major threat to democracy. In an op-ed first published in the Jamaica-based online newspaper WiredJA, Welsh critiques both the Guyana Government’s defense of the inflated voter roll and the silence of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), which he argues is complicit in allowing these irregularities to persist.
Welsh begins by referencing the work of Niccolò Machiavelli, who in his seminal work The Prince, discussed how leaders often prioritise self-interest, using alliances and public perception to maintain power. Welsh draws parallels to CARICOM’s handling of Guyana’s electoral issues, suggesting that the regional body’s inaction is driven by political convenience rather than a commitment to upholding democratic values.
CARICOM’s Missed Opportunity
Welsh highlights the events surrounding Guyana’s disputed 2020 General and Regional lections, where CARICOM played a prominent role. As the recount unfolded, then-chairwoman Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados was vocal in calling for the results to be based on the recount, demanding fairness in the process. Her successor, Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, took an even stronger stance, urging former President David Granger to step down.
Despite the fact that CARICOM’s appointed Recount Team recommended a total re-registration of all voters as a prerequisite for electoral reform, Welsh points out that CARICOM has failed to follow up on these recommendations. He criticises the regional body for its silence in the wake of credible allegations of voter irregularities, such as multiple voting, deceased individuals appearing on the rolls, and votes cast in the names of overseas nationals.
The Case Against Guyana’s Inflated Voter List
The crux of Welsh’s argument revolves around Guyana’s voter registration list, which, at over 731,000, constitutes 91% of the population. This figure stands in stark contrast to regional and international norms. Welsh notes that in countries with similar demographics—like the Bahamas, Uganda, and the Maldives—the voter registration rate is typically no higher than 60%. In Guyana, however, the registration rate is disproportionately high, raising red flags about the credibility of the election results.
“Mathematically and demographically, it is implausible for a country with a population of around 800,000 to have over 731,000 registered voters,” Welsh writes. He further highlights that this anomaly could easily be exploited for electoral manipulation, especially given the absence of corrective measures and the presence of the legal ruling from the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) that allows ballots to remain valid even in the case of irregularities.
Comparing Guyana to Other Countries
In his op-ed, Welsh also addresses common defenses used by proponents of the bloated voter list, particularly the comparisons to countries like Brazil, Argentina, and the United Kingdom(UK). While these countries do have higher registration rates, Welsh points out that their populations are much older, meaning a larger portion of their people are eligible to vote. For instance, Brazil’s average age is 34 years, Argentina’s is 33 years, and the UK’s is 40 years, all significantly older than Guyana’s average age of 25 years.
Furthermore, Welsh notes that high voter registration in countries like Brazil is paired with high voter turnout. Brazil’s turnout in 2022 was 79%, Argentina’s in 2023 was 77%, and the UK’s in 2019 was 67%. Guyana, however, has a bloated voter list but inconsistent turnout, with 72.5% voter participation in the 2020 elections. Given the abnormal size of Guyana’s voter roll, Welsh argues that this level of turnout is statistically improbable.
A Statistical Outlier: The Evidence of Guyana’s Bloated Electoral List
| Country | Population (2024) | Registered Voters | % of Population Registered | % Turnout in Last Election |
| Guyana | ~800,000 | 731,000 | ~91% | 72.5% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | ~100,335 | 60,916 | ~60.7% | 70.34% |
| Saint Lucia | ~180,000 | 160,465 | ~89.2% | 53.6% |
| Bahamas | ~400,000 | 187,000 | ~46.8% | 65.0% |
| Uganda | ~45,741,000 | 18,103,603 | ~39.6% | 57.22% |
| Brazil | ~213,993,000 | 156,454,011 | ~73.1% | 79.0% |
| Argentina | ~45,376,000 | 34,330,557 | ~75.7% | 77.01% |
| Maldives | ~540,000 | 264,589 | ~49.0% | 88.2% |
| United Kingdom | ~67,081,000 | 47,587,254 | ~70.9% | 67.3% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | ~215,000 | 92,639 | ~43.1% | 68.6% |
The Flawed Barbados Comparison
Defenders of Guyana’s voter list often cite Barbados as a comparable example. While Barbados has a similarly high registration rate of 92.5%, Welsh argues that this comparison fails to account for Barbados’ older population, with a median age of 39 years compared to Guyana’s 25 years. Additionally, voter turnout in Barbados’ most recent election was only 59.5%, further undermining the argument that a high registration rate alone is evidence of a fair electoral system.
The Migration Argument: A Weak Justification
Another explanation often cited for Guyana’s inflated voter list is the large number of Guyanese nationals living abroad. However, Welsh dismisses this argument, pointing out that other CARICOM nations with similarly large diasporas, such as Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, do not experience the same level of voter list inflation. He also challenges the idea that migration before the age of 14—when voter registration is allowed—should result in such an inflated list, questioning why Guyana’s voter rolls continue to grow despite migration trends.
The Need for Immediate Action
Welsh concludes his op-ed with a call for immediate action to address the electoral irregularities in Guyana. He urges CARICOM, the Organisation of American States (OAS), and the Commonwealth to take a firm stance on the issue, warning that their silence risks undermining their credibility as impartial defenders of democracy. According to Welsh, the situation in Guyana represents a dangerous precedent for electoral integrity across the region.
Without intervention, he asserts, the credibility of Guyana’s electoral process will continue to be compromised, leading to a future where electoral manipulation becomes the norm rather than the exception.
