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By Mark DaCosta- With Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 United States presidential election, the world braces for the impact of his return to power, particularly on global trade. His declared love for tariffs and protectionist policies poses a grave risk not only to the U.S. but also to countries like Guyana that depend on stable international trade. The potential consequences of his economic strategies could be catastrophic, threatening inflation, escalating poverty, and sparking trade wars that ripple across the globe.
Trump’s re-election signals a renewed push for his stated policies that could destabilise the global economy, and for nations like Guyana, which rely heavily on imports, the stakes have never been higher. The former president’s policies are likely to initiate a period of economic upheaval marked by escalating prices, reduced trade, and increased political instability.
Trump made no secret of his preference for trade tariffs
During his first term, Trump made no secret of his preference for trade tariffs, frequently calling them his “favourite word.” This preference for protectionist policies, has long been a source of concern for economists worldwide. In essence, tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods, making foreign products more expensive in an attempt to protect local markets. However, history has shown that this strategy backfires.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which aimed to protect American businesses, serves as a chilling reminder of the risks involved. By raising duties on hundreds of imports, the U.S. sparked retaliatory measures from its trading partners, which led to a catastrophic collapse of global trade and contributed significantly to the Great Depression. This economic disaster saw millions of people lose their jobs, homes, and savings, creating widespread poverty and political instability.
Now, with Trump on his way back to the oval office, his proposed tariffs could trigger global economic confusion. In particular, countries like Guyana, which import a significant proportion of our goods, could suffer greatly from rising prices and reduced access to affordable essentials.
Effects of Trump’s stated trade policies would be deeply felt in Guyana
In Guyana, the effects of Trump’s stated trade policies would be deeply felt. As a developing nation, Guyana is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global trade. With its reliance on imports for everything from food to medicine, any increase in tariffs could drive up the costs of everyday goods. Basic necessities such as fuel, rent, food, and healthcare could become prohibitively expensive.
Experts, including Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have underscored the dangers of such trade wars, warning that “nobody comes out unscathed” when tariffs escalate globally. The economic impact could force even more families in Guyana into poverty.
At the same time, the prospect of retaliatory tariffs from other nations could make the situation even worse. As countries retaliate against the U.S., they may impose higher tariffs on American products, further disrupting international trade. This could lead to a vicious cycle of escalating protectionist measures that would limit the global supply of goods.
Fallout from Trump’s trade policies would not stop at rising prices
The fallout from Trump’s trade policies would not stop at rising prices. According to André Sapir, an economist at the Bruegel think tank, the world could face a “spiral of trade measures” initiated by the U.S. but amplified by other countries. Such a chain reaction could devastate entire industries, leading to widespread unemployment and economic dislocation.
For countries like Guyana, this would mean fewer job opportunities, especially in industries that rely on global trade for supply chains. The result would be mass job losses, increased social unrest, and political instability, both domestically and internationally. The global economy could be thrown into chaos as nations scramble to find new trading partners or adjust to the changing dynamics of international commerce.
Moreover, the economic strain caused by tariffs could also affect the broader financial system. If Trump’s policies destabilise the U.S. dollar, which is the world’s primary reserve currency, the effects would be disastrous.
One of the key arguments against Trump’s trade policies is the risk of reversing the global economic progress made over the past several decades. Trade has been a central driver of poverty reduction and global prosperity. As Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, noted, “trade has lifted billions out of poverty and doubled global income over the last four decades.” Closing off global economies would not only threaten these gains but could plunge millions back into economic hardship.
In Guyana, the implications are particularly dire. As a country still in the process of economic development, the potential closure of trade routes and the fragmentation of global supply chains could set back progress by years.
Beyond economic consequences, Trump’s return also raises concerns about political instability
Beyond the economic consequences, Trump’s return to the White House also raises concerns about political instability. His past attempts to exert influence over the Federal Reserve have raised alarms among financial experts, with fears that undermining the independence of the central bank could send shockwaves through the global financial system. This could erode confidence in the U.S. dollar and lead to a global economic crisis that would have far-reaching consequences for all nations, including Guyana.
The return of an isolationist U.S. would also undermine international cooperation, leaving countries like Guyana to fend for ourselves in an increasingly divided world. In a time of global challenges such as climate change, public health crises, and geopolitical tensions, the absence of strong multilateral relationships could have disastrous effects on global peace and stability.
In light of the looming threat posed by Trump’s economic policies, it is more important than ever for countries like Guyana to prepare for the potential fallout. While the future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the world’s economies, especially smaller nations like ours, cannot afford to return to a trade environment marked by tariffs, isolationism, and economic fragmentation.
As global citizens, it is essential that Guyana advocates for policies that promote international cooperation, economic integration, and mutual prosperity. The well-being of our people depends on it. In the coming years, Guyana must work closely with its international partners to safeguard our trade relationships and protect our people from the harmful effects of Trump’s dangerous economic vision.
