Dr. Gampat Exposes Flaws in Joel Bhagwandin’s Migration Theory; Misleading Data and Speculation

October 9, 2024 – In an incisive letter to the editor, Dr. Ramesh Gampat dismantled Joel Bhagwandin’s recent claims on Guyanese migration, accusing him of using deceptive data and faulty logic to suggest that out-migration is no longer a significant issue in Guyana. Bhagwandin’s analysis, which relied on airport arrivals and departures from 2015 to 2023, was called out as “crafty and misleading” by Dr. Gampat, who explained that such data cannot be used to prove whether people are leaving the country permanently.

Bhagwandin’s letter, which was published on October 8, argued that Guyana’s economic growth, particularly its high GDP growth rates, is reducing the permanent migration of Guyanese. He based his conclusions on data showing that, over the past several years, arrivals at Guyana’s international airports have exceeded departures, suggesting that more people are coming to live in Guyana than leaving. However, Dr. Gampat sharply criticized Bhagwandin’s use of this data, explaining that airport arrivals and departures reflect temporary movements, not permanent migration, rendering the dataset “irrelevant” to the argument Bhagwandin is trying to make.

“Bhagwandin gives the impression that migration refers to both temporary and permanent movements of people, conflating the two and confusing the reader,” Dr. Gampat wrote. He further pointed out that the Bureau of Statistics (BoS) itself had tried to use similar data between 2007 and 2012 and found it inadequate, stating that it “suggests a strong pattern of underreporting.” According to Gampat, Bhagwandin’s conclusions ignore this critical limitation and rely on misleading airport data.

Dr. Gampat also offered a more accurate method for estimating migration, pointing to his own research on implied migration, detailed in his 2022 book, *Essays: Guyana – Economics, Politics, and Demography.* He explained that migration is best understood through what he calls “A Beautiful Identity”—a formula where population change equals natural increase (births minus deaths) minus net migration (people leaving or entering a country permanently). Based on this method, Gampat estimated that nearly 681,000 Guyanese emigrated permanently between 1960 and 2018, with a net of 628,550 still living abroad after accounting for deaths.

“The idea that fewer than 10,000 Guyanese are leaving to live abroad permanently each year is speculative at best,” Dr. Gampat argued, emphasizing that Bhagwandin’s reliance on airport data is “pure invention, pure fiction.”

While Bhagwandin claimed that his analysis disproves the notion that a large number of Guyanese are migrating, Dr. Gampat countered that the analysis is fundamentally flawed, and his conclusion is not supported by any credible data. “His dataset is inappropriate for the purpose he set out to prove,” Gampat wrote, concluding that Bhagwandin’s hypothesis may be reasonable but is entirely undermined by his reliance on the wrong data.

Dr. Gampat’s scathing critique of Bhagwandin’s work comes as Guyana faces increased scrutiny over its economic and population trends, particularly as the country prepares for its 2025 general elections. Gampat’s letter serves as a reminder that data must be used responsibly and that misleading the public with faulty conclusions only contributes to further confusion in an already complex political and social landscape.

Bhagwandin’s attempt to paint a rosier picture of Guyanese migration using unreliable data was, in Dr. Gampat’s words, a tactic meant to “silence the lesser folks who might be thinking about the 2025 general elections.” With migration being a key issue for the country, it is crucial that public figures engage in transparent and truthful analysis, rather than the “subtle writing and confusion” that Gampat attributes to Bhagwandin’s work.

As Guyana continues to grow economically due to its booming oil sector, the reality of out-migration, especially among the younger population, remains a significant issue. Dr. Gampat’s letter serves as a wake-up call for those who might be tempted to oversimplify the complex factors driving people to seek better opportunities abroad.

Dr Gampat’s Letter