As a teenager, I had this undying passion for the popular board game, known as chess. An undying passion that was driven by the conviction, this has to be more than a board game, with it mirroring life. For it reflects our very thought processes, and actions, when endeavouring to outmanoeuvre and conquer an opponent. In fact, being knee deep in the enigmatic game, meant I was always surrounded by many chess books. And of the innumerable chess books consumed, I was rendered truly fascinated with the opening gambit. Where the gambit represents a stratagem, in which a player sacrifices pieces, with the aim of achieving a later game advantage.
However, over the years, the gambit has evolved to have taken on a political underpinning. Where it now describes a political sacrifice, made by a calculating politician, with the aim of making future political gains. And one such calculating politician, who has recently embarked on a gambit, is Nicolás Maduro. For this referendum gambit, was aimed at resuscitating his political career, to gain popular support in the 2024 election. But herein lies the caveat, Nicolás Maduro is no grandmaster playing, gambit outwitting, board conquering chess player. In fact, he is an impulsive uneducated truck driver, that would struggle to formulate a formidable referendum gambit.
On the other hand, Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez was politically savvy, with an unmatched charisma and a socialist disposition. But with his death, along with mismanagement and corruption in the Oil Industry, came a drastic decline in the oil dependent economy. And it was in this economic environment, Nicolas Maduro inherited the Premiership of the oil rich nation, in 2013. Then as would be expected, on being inaugurated, he enjoyed a honeymoon period, like most newly elected, with approval ratings between 45-50%. However, within one year, his approval rating declined from 50% to the despairing 24.5%, then to a depressing 4.1%, in 2019. In fact, this poor approval rating continued, as evident in February 2023, where of those polled, only 15.69% stated, they would’ve cast their ballot in favour of him, in the 2024 elections. Which means, the 11% turnout in the referendum was expected, and consistent with his poor polling over the past 10yrs.
Thus, unsurprising it must be, the Venezuelan economy, has experienced a catastrophic collapse, coinciding with Maduro Presidential reign. Such that, by 2015, 2yrs into his Presidency, the country was experiencing over 100% inflation—the highest in the world and the highest in the country’s history, at that time. However, independent analysts proffered, the inflation rate had increased to 80,000% at the end of 2018, even as the economy spiralled into hyperinflation, with nearly 90% of the population living in poverty. Therefore, the consequence we see, millions of Venezuelans have crossed, and continue to cross, the neighbouring borders, including ours, desperate for an escape from this Maduro’s madness.
Mark’s Take
And it’s for these reasons, facing an imminent election with poor approval ratings, Maduro engages a referendum gambit, desperate to resuscitate his terminal political career. But his referendum gambit, had a natural and inconsequential death, the day of the ICJ ruling. Therefore, like a cornered tiger, he blatantly defied the ICJ judicial orders, in modifying Essequibo’s status quo. And as a final act of desperation before the 2024 elections, which he is destined to lose, Maduro has announced Venezuela will now grant concessions in Essequibo. Further, acting like a man who has lost his marbles, he has decreed that companies within the Essequibo area, must leave within three months, or face the consequences.
But this is the reality. A reality that Maduro is well aware of. A reality that Venezuela’s elections are constitutionally due in 2024, less than one month away. And with all the polls projecting a heavy defeat for Maduro, in three months, he is likely to be an impotent lame duck President. Which means, these three months deadlines and Governor appointment, are the desperate act of a desperate man, desperate to save face, and desperate to gain popular support, after the humiliating referendum gambit.
In fact, this referendum gambit was always destined to be humiliating, when one considers the law is on our side, and the polling was eternally against Maduró. As a matter of fact, the referendum gambit was unmistakably humiliating, with 90% of the Venezuelan electorate, resoundingly rejecting Maduro. For the polling stations were virtually desolate, with only 2 of 21 million potential voters, casting their ballots. Thus, it’s these realities, a desperate Maduro is facing, explanatory to his ever-increasing desperate acts. Desperate acts, which are symptomatic of Maduro’s madness.
