By David Hinds
Last week’s column made the case that it would take a herculean effort to mend Guyana whenever the current impasse is resolved. I made that prediction on the basis of studies of ethnically divided societies in general and Guyana in particular. I am satisfied that there are three factors at play in this election—ethnic competition and conflict, geopolitics, and the potential oil and gas wealth. In other words, the election has become the occasion for the convergence of those three factors. I know of no instance where a small country with fragile ethno-political relations like Guyana has been able to escape the ravages of that convergence.
One of the problems is that it is near impossible to get that through to the general population which has formed its opinion based on the narratives of forces which have framed the impasse in very narrow terms such as electoral rigging and refusal to respect the will of the people. That constant drumbeat by one side of the political divide has become a truism which has in turn prompted formulations such as good versus evil. In an ethnic environment good and evil can only mean us versus them—all of us versus all of them. There is nothing more dangerous than that kind of formulation colliding with preexisting ethnic insecurities and fears.
There are three factors that drive ethnic conflict. First, groups get riled up by tangible threats to their vital interests such as permanent disenfranchisement and dispossession. Second groups move towards conflict when there is the perception that the groups collective honor and dignity are being threatened. Third, the probability of conflict is heightened when groups see fresh opportunities to gain advantage or to settle scores. I submit that all three factors are very present in the discourses and political stances of the groups and their leaderships in the current impasse. Thanks to social media one can witness these related narratives in real time.
Then there is the coming of oil which is often unspoken but very present just below the surface. It represents a tangible economic resource over which groups fight. Unprecedented potential wealth thrown into a situation where ethnic groups are already quarreling over inequities in the distribution of economic resources is a certain route to conflict. And since the state remains the most important distributor of resources, the fight to govern takes on added significance.
The third factor is geopolitics. The vast oil and gas wealth logically bring Guyana into geopolitical importance. It is not only the volume of oil and gas, but Guyana’s geographical location makes it strategic for two reasons. The proximity to North America has economic value and the proximity to one of America’s archenemy has political value. It follows then that external forces will take more of an active interest in who governs. That those forces have found a ready and willing ally in one of the domestic competitors allows for bolder action—they are “invited”.
External forces often ignore underlying domestic problems such as ethnic competition and conflict. We see that at play currently. Under the guise of protecting democracy, international and regional forces appear oblivious to how their actions are negatively affecting the already fragile ethnic relations and national compact. While the big countries would be able to pivot in pursuit of their interests, the same cannot be said for CARICOM. It will take a lot to repair Guyana-CARICOM relations after the impasse subsides. Those relations have again become hitched to ethnicity.
As I hinted above, the situation is not helped by the fact that the independent middle has disappeared. The impasse has devoured any little pretense of independence. The elites of the ethnic groups have generally fallen in line with the “race” and the party. It is an amazing turn, but it was inevitable. It is difficult to predict how Guyana recovers from these developments. It has not yet become apparent to the general populace that any declared winner of the election would have an extremely hard time governing on its own. That is why a power sharing arrangement remains the only thing that may stand between the parties and the inevitable rapid deterioration of our national compact.
More of Dr. Hinds’ writings and commentaries can be found on his YouTube Channel Hinds’ Sight: Dr. David Hinds’ Guyana-Caribbean Politics and on his website www.guyanacaribbeanpolitics.news. Send comments to dhinds6106@aol.com
