The U.S. experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century as a result of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, according to a report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.
Although the administration has undertaken aggressive removal efforts, the negative number is mostly due to a significant drop in entries into the U.S., the report said.
“We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year,” the Brookings study stated. “Though a high degree of policy uncertainty remains, continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely.”
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The report attributed the shift to combination of the large drop in entries and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures.
The Trump administration’s suspension of many humanitarian programs — including most refugee programs with the exception of those involving white South Africans — and a decline in temporary visas also contributed to the negative net migration, the report said.
The report’s authors estimate there were between 310,000 and 315,000 removals in 2025, a figure lower than what the administration has claimed. Department of Homeland Security officials claim that, so far, more than 600,000 people have been removed during the crackdown.
“At 310,000 to 315,000, the 2025 removals are not much higher than the 2024 removals of around 285,000,” the report states.
Unlike in 2024, most removals in 2025 were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from the country’s interior, the report said, as opposed to being initiated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement — despite the actions of some ICE officers dominating many news headlines.
A spokesperson with the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees CPB and ICE, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from ABC News.
The report’s authors also predicted removals will increase in 2026 with funding from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which the report said will “likely allow for increased infrastructure and staffing to achieve a higher level of enforcement.”
According to the report, authorities also predict the net migration loss will see certain sectors of the economy experience “unexpectedly weak economic activity,” specifically businesses that serve affected immigrant populations.
“The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth,” the report states, adding that consumer spending is expected to fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion over 2025 and 2026.
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