Guyanese owe Ram and McRae, a venerable local accounting firm, a word of gratitude for its efforts with that survey. That oil contract and oil management survey took the temperature of Guyanese on their oil. It was warm, warmer, then blistering in some spots. The survey provides the first warning signs that things are not so well beneath the surface. In addition, I thank the respondents to that survey for their honesty, alongside what I would say is their patriotism. The thought was that the latter is a thing of the past, long gone, forever lost. In this follow-up writing to the one first published by SN on October 28,2024, the focus is on the meaning of that 94% of 135 respondents penciling in their support for renegotiation of the Exxon contract signed eight years ago.
The numbers in the survey stand. The call for renegotiation of the contract gathered the highest percentage (94%) of responses. It is saying something, a mouthful loaded with meaning, especially in the short history of that renegotiation word. Guyana’s political leadership history with it, to be specific. And when coupled with the nonnumerical (noneconomic) aspects of the survey, Guyana’s leaders in the two major political parties should sit up straight and start staying up late. First, a brief look at the history of renegotiation of the Exxon contract.
In the early days, the PPP Government spoke of “review and renegotiate” all contracts. Common sense would endorse that the Exxon contract, the biggest of all, had to be part of that stated plan. Then, President Ali found a magic potion that he felt gave him room to back away from renegotiation. It was what led him and his government to have a radical change of heart relative to anything that had renegotiation written on it, so much as hinted in it. President Ali’s greasy magic potion flourishes under the tent called “sanctity of contract.” Sanctity of contract is the inviolable place in which he barricaded himself (as though a citizen on the run), and from which he has refused to budge. As convenience motels (tents) go, President Ali choose one made of glass.
For his part, Guyana’s chief oil policymaker, Mr. Jagdeo ran for any bed under which he could hide from renegotiation of the 2016 Exxon contract. The too clever by half Jagdeo found one that he thought was foolproof, fireproof, and bulletproof: better contract management. To date, Vice President Jagdeo’s better contract management is best compared to the old Holy Roman Empire. It was neither Roman nor an empire, and definitely did not have anything remotely holy about it.
Remember that I am Roman Catholic, but am still saying this. Whatever Jagdeo is doing is not management, has nothing to do with the standing Exxon contract, and whoever falls for that schtick about better is a candidate for the psychiatric ward. Or for the biggest dunce cap that could be found. Last, Opposition Leader Norton has made strenuous attempts to maintain the greatest and safest distance between himself, his group, and renegotiation of the contract. There stands the abbreviated history of renegotiation of the oil contract. It is a sorry one.
Separately, Mr. Alistair Routledge, Exxon’s contract champ and enforcer in Guyana has repeatedly presented his secret sauce. He insists that any renegotiation of the contract will interfere (more to follow in part 3) with the delicate balance of his company’s visions, portfolios, and strategies. Like Guyana’s political stars, Exxon’s Routledge also thinks that Guyanese don’t have a brain in their head, and that they bray. As the Ram and McRae survey revealed, a significant percentage of respondents highlighted lack of political will as damaging the best oversight of Guyana’s fabulous oil patrimony.
The fear of political repercussions also ranked fairly highly. To put in my own words, Guyana’s main political leaders are afraid to touch the Exxon contract. So they do nothing, or come up with their childish camouflages to paper over their cowardice. Leaders stand still on the contract, for one wrong move and Exxon kicks them so hard that they fall on their faces and out of office. Incumbents get ousted; contenders get busted. Their fear has been conspicuous and constant. It is of men cowering when the right thing for country and people cry out to be done. Renegotiate the contract. Call for it. Push for it. Fight for it. Now, I switch the spotlight on the respondents themselves.
Guyanese shrink from speaking publicly against Exxon’s raw deal. It is either due to partisanship, or the dread of retaliation, or loyalty to cultish leadership. But when presented with the opportunity to state their position in a protected environment (faceless and nameless survey), they spoke frankly and honestly; 94% called for renegotiation. Since leaders are immovably set against renegotiation, they have just given Guyanese voters the justification they were, perhaps, looking for to discard them.
The secrecy embedded in the exercise of the ballot (voting) furnishes the perfect cover for an open and comprehensive revolt by Guyanese voters against those who have no use for renegotiation, those who play at being tricky with anything that has to do with renegotiation. Meaning, no matter how peripherally, or how sparingly. It seems that Guyanese voters get a viable and credible oil candidate in the 2025 elections, and the PPP and PNC could be left to dry their tears. And lamenting why they didn’t listen and do something about renegotiation of this horribly and unspeakably disadvantageous Exxon oil contract.
