Guyana’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, placed second in the first informal United Nations Security Council straw poll to gauge support for candidates seeking to become the organisation’s next Secretary-General, according to diplomats cited by Reuters.
The non-binding vote, conducted behind closed doors on Thursday, placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan in the lead with 10 “encourage” votes. Rodrigues-Birkett received nine encourage votes, while Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), received seven.
According to Reuters, Rodrigues-Birkett also received two “discourage” votes and four “no opinion” votes. Grynspan received one discourage vote and four no-opinion votes, while Grossi received two discourage votes and six no-opinion votes.
Despite Rodrigues-Birkett’s strong showing in the opening round, diplomats cautioned that the race remains wide open. One diplomat told Reuters the first poll showed “no consensus” around any candidate, while another said Rodrigues-Birkett’s performance was a surprise but noted that her prospects would depend on whether either of her two discourage votes came from one of the Security Council’s five permanent members.
The straw poll is the first of what is expected to be several rounds of informal voting by the Security Council’s 15 members before the body recommends a candidate to the 193-member UN General Assembly. Council members cast secret ballots indicating whether they “encourage”, “discourage” or have “no opinion” on each candidate.
At this stage, all ballots are identical, meaning it is impossible to determine whether a discourage vote came from one of the five permanent veto-wielding members—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States. In later rounds, those countries cast differently coloured ballots, revealing whether a candidate has received a potentially decisive veto-threatening “discourage” vote.
Rodrigues-Birkett is one of seven candidates seeking to succeed António Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on December 31. She was nominated by Guyana and currently serves as the country’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. She previously served as Guyana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2008 to 2015.
The other candidates are Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who entered the race last week. Additional candidates may still enter the contest before the selection process concludes.
Several more rounds of straw polling are expected over the coming weeks, with the process likely continuing into September or October if no consensus emerges. The Security Council must ultimately agree on a single nominee, requiring at least nine votes in favour and no veto from any of its five permanent members, before forwarding the recommendation to the General Assembly for formal approval.
While Rodrigues-Birkett remains in contention after the opening vote, the first straw poll is only an early indication of support and is not considered a reliable predictor of the eventual outcome, particularly before the permanent members reveal whether any candidate faces a potential veto.
