Dear Editor,
Many demographers argue that the world is entering a global population crisis. The challenge is more complex because different regions face opposite problems at the same time.
In 2025, falling fertility rates are making global headlines, with some governments warning of a “population collapse” and introducing drastic policies to boost births. Since 1990, World Population Day has been observed on July 11. This year’s World Population Day theme is “Realizing the hopes and aspirations of young people today and for the future.”
This year’s theme highlights how young people’s decisions about education, employment, housing, relationships, and family life are increasingly influenced by the cities they inhabit.
Two-thirds of the global population now lives in areas where fertility rates are below 2.1 children per woman the threshold needed to keep population size stable. In the early 1970s, women had on average 4.5 children each; by 2015, total fertility for the world had fallen to below 2.5 children per woman. Meanwhile, average global life expectancy has risen, from 64.6 years in the early 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019.
Population Trends in the Caribbean
In 1963, the rate of population growth in the Caribbean was 2.23%. The general trend since then can be described as a rather steady decline. By 2020, the rate of population growth in the region was 0.46%. The Caribbean’s population totaling roughly 44.8 million people is defined by slowing growth, increasing urbanization, and significant outmigration. With the region nearing the end of its demographic transition, low birth rates, aging demographics, and a high rate of emigration to North America and Europe are primary drivers shaping current demographic shifts.
Increased life expectancy and better healthcare mean the median age in the region is rising (reaching roughly 32.7 years). Countries like Barbados are experiencing notable population aging. Outmigration often driven by economic challenges and climate vulnerabilities remains a major factor. Between 2000 and 2022, an estimated 3.2 million individuals left Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS), significantly impacting the local labor market and shrinking available youth.
Jamaica
According to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Jamaica’s population was estimated at 2,764,200 at the end of 2025 when compared with 2,763,600 in 2024. This indicates a net population increase of just 600 persons and a growth rate of 0.0 per cent. According to the Economic and Social Survey Jamaica, there were 28,900 births and an estimated 21,300 deaths in 2025 resulting in a natural increase of 7,600 persons. However, migration also accounted for a loss of 7,000 individuals compared with 8,800 in the previous year. In explaining the low growth, the PIOJ said, “Jamaica is undergoing demographic changes that are consistent with the final stages of the demographic transition model which is characterized by low fertility and low mortality rates; this contributes to low or negative population growth”.
The PIOJ highlighted that in 2025, Jamaica’s estimated population exhibited changes in its age and sex composition. It noted that a relatively large proportion of the population remains in the working age group (15–64 years), while there is an increasing dependent elderly population (65 years and over). Worryingly is that the share of the child population (0–14 years) continues to record a decline and, as noted by the PIOJ, “net migration loss, below replacement level fertility rates and population ageing have all had an impact on the population structure”.
Megatrends
The United Nations (UN) adds that in addition, the world is seeing high levels of urbanization and accelerating migration. 2007 was the first year in which more people lived in urban areas than in rural areas, and by 2050 about 66 per cent of the world population will be living in cities.
These megatrends have far-reaching implications. They affect economic development, employment, income distribution, poverty and social protections. They also affect efforts to ensure universal access to health care, education, housing, sanitation, water, food and energy. To more sustainably address the needs of individuals, policymakers must understand how many people are living on the planet, where they are, how old they are, and how many people will come after them.
The world population reached 8 billion in 2023. The projection is that global population will reach 8.2 billion in July 2026, 9 billion by 2039, 10 billion by 2060, and peak at 10.6 billion in 2092 before declining. Undoubtedly, young people are concerned about their futures. Many expect to experience worse outcomes than their parents did. Their concerns about climate change, economic instability and rising global conflicts will be reflected in the choices they make about raising families.
On this World Population Day, governments should redouble their commitments to invest in the education of young people, especially girls. Importantly, more effort should be made to increase the ages of marriage and first childbearing in countries where these have an early onset – will have positive outcomes for women’s health, educational attainment and labour force participation.
These efforts will also contribute to reducing the scale of the investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind.
In the words of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, across the globe, young people are stepping up – as leaders, innovators, activists and more – to tackle shared challenges. We must match their determination with greater investments in education, sexual and reproductive health, decent work and real participation in decision-making.
Wayne Campbell is an educator and social commentator with an interest in development policies as they affect culture and or gender issues.
Yours truly
Wayne Campbell
waykam@yahoo.com
@WayneCamo
