By Tsvetana Paraskova (Oilprice.com)- Venezuela’s oil production and exports are set to increase in the coming months as the United States further eases the rules of operating in the world’s biggest crude resource holder after taking control over the industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
The rise of Venezuela’s oil supply is good news for South America’s oil producers and sellers, which have stepped up shipments so far this year amid the disruption in the Middle East. It’s also good news for the U.S., whose refineries are taking increased volumes of Venezuelan crude.
The Venezuelan rebound and the increase in South America’s crude supply from Brazil and Guyana are also good news for crude buyers in Asia and Europe, who are diversifying sources of oil as the Strait of Hormuz may have turned into a permanent risk to oil supply.
In yet another step toward more oil from Venezuela, the U.S. last week eased several key general licenses for operations in Venezuela, allowing additional activity, although it did not remove sanctions fully. The new U.S. Treasury guidance eases certain commercial constraints in key sectors, including oil, gas, and minerals extraction.
At the same time, the world’s biggest oilfield services provider, SLB, signed a long-term framework agreement with Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA to support the revitalization and modernization of Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) establishes a basis for cooperation across exploration, field development, production, digital enablement, and workforce training and development, SLB said.
“This MoU builds on that continuity and sets out a path with PDVSA to strengthen operational excellence and develop the skills that will sustain performance for years to come,” SLB’s chief executive officer, Olivier Le Peuch, said.
The return of international firms to Venezuela lays the foundations for a rebound in the country’s oil supply, although it’s still a third of the peak levels of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from more than a decade ago.
Venezuela is back on international markets with its oil sales under U.S. control and being marketed by top commodity trading houses Vitol and Trafigura. Venezuela’s oil exports hit a fresh seven-year high in May as shipments to the United States and India surged.
Venezuela has been steadily increasing its oil exports since the U.S. took control over its oil sales following the capture of Maduro early this year. The U.S. has eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and PDVSA, allowed Western firms to return to Venezuelan operations, and has encouraged American companies to sign production and export deals.
Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, up by 0.7% compared to April’s 1.23 million bpd exports and a massive 61% jump compared to May 2025.
The U.S. and India have become major buyers of Venezuela’s oil after the sanctions were dropped, and the top international oil traders Vitol and Trafigura were tasked to sell most of the crude to buyers.
The United States remained the top buyer of Venezuela’s crude, taking in about 558,000 bpd in May, followed by India with 427,000 bpd and Europe with 169,000 bpd. Shipments to all three regions rose in May from April levels.
“Venezuela’s crude output recovery is no longer speculative,” Kpler’s Naveen Das wrote in an analysis last month.
Venezuelan output is aggressively recovering, targeting nearly 600,000 bpd growth on the year to 1.3 million bpd in 2026.
The issuance of new operating licenses is set to further boost Venezuela’s output toward 1.5 million bpd by 2027, according to Kpler.
U.S. refiners are set to benefit from the rebound, as they are well-positioned to take additional volumes of Venezuelan crude.
Refineries in the United States can still absorb additional volumes of Venezuelan crude, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week.
“You don’t just flip on a switch, but you’ll see more and more Venezuelan crude demanded by U.S. refineries,” Wright noted.
