Social commentator GHK Lall is cautioning Guyana’s political leadership against placing excessive confidence in American support, arguing that recent signs of growing cooperation between the United States and Venezuela should serve as a warning to President Irfaan Ali and Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo.
In a column published Monday in Village Voice News titled “Take Note Guyana, Be Wise(r) Drs. Ali, Jagdeo,“ Lall contends that geopolitics is driven not by friendship or loyalty, but by economic and strategic interests—a reality he believes Guyana’s leaders can no longer afford to ignore.
His warning was triggered by reports that United States (U.S) authorities and Venezuela’s Bolivarian Armed Forces cooperated in an operation targeting alleged Tren de Aragua leader Héctor “Niño” Guerrero.
“To repeat so that this fully registers: the U.S. military working with the Venezuelan military,” Lall wrote. “There are special relationships, then there are extra-special friendships. Guyanese had better get smart. Get some real understanding about how superpowers function. There’s no emotion. Only vision and ambition.”
The remarks come as Guyana continues to rely heavily on diplomatic, security and political backing from Washington amid Venezuela’s renewed push to claim the Essequibo, a territory comprising roughly two-thirds of Guyana’s landmass.
But Lall argues that Guyana’s leaders may be underestimating the pull of Venezuela’s economic potential and overestimating the permanence of American support.
At the center of his argument is oil.
While Guyana has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers following a series of major offshore discoveries, Venezuela still possesses the largest proven oil reserves on the planet—estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. Guyana’s recoverable resources are estimated at over 11 billion barrels.
Lall suggested that Washington’s long-term calculations could be influenced by the sheer scale of opportunities available in Venezuela should its economy stabilize and international investment restrictions continue to ease.
“Assume that Guyana has US$100 billion in infrastructure works. Venezuela is in such a dilapidated state, that a cool US$1 trillion is merely the beginning of the conversation,” he wrote.
The columnist contrasted Guyana’s population of less than one million with Venezuela’s roughly 28 million people, arguing that major American banks and corporations would inevitably be attracted to the larger market.
“Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase (again) and Citigroup (again) represent the business of America – Big Business with Big Uncle,” he wrote.
For Lall, the key question is whether Washington would jeopardise those opportunities in defense of Guyana should tensions with Venezuela escalate.
“I predict many such US-Venezuela joint military ops,” he wrote. “First question: if the U.S. is fighting alongside Venezuelan soldiers today for American interests, is it going to fight against them tomorrow for Guyana’s interests?”
The columnist also delivered a pointed critique of the Ali administration’s handling of the Venezuelan threat, suggesting that government leaders have been distracted by domestic political battles while Caracas steadily advances its strategic position.
Referring to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who has played a prominent role in her country’s campaign over the Essequibo controversy, Lall remarked: “I tip my hat in recognition of a woman who outflanked all the baad men in the PPP Govt.”
He added that he had repeatedly warned Guyana’s leaders to focus their attention on developments beyond the country’s western border.
“I cautioned them, urged them, even begged them: stop wasting time with perceived Guyanese enemies. Look to the Northwest. There the real enemies of country and party reside.”
Lall further argued that a strengthening U.S.-Venezuela relationship could eventually alter Guyana’s strategic value to Washington.
“The U.S-Venezuela relationship is poised to go from strength to strength,” he wrote. “The US-Guyana special friendship becomes an inconvenience, a hindrance to neighboring business and progress.”
Though he acknowledged that public displays of friendship between Guyanese and American officials are likely to continue, Lall suggested that commercial realities could ultimately outweigh diplomatic rhetoric.
“For sure, the mutually comforting speeches and warm camera smiles and handshakes will continue,” he wrote. “But it is goodbye to U.S. pressure on Venezuela, U.S. animosities against Venezuela.”
Lall concluded with a direct swipe at President Ali, linking Guyana’s current position to the government’s repeated emphasis on the sanctity of contracts in the oil sector.
“Amid all this, I feel sorry for Excellency Ali. This is his reward for that monkey on Guyana’s head: sanctity of contract. What men do doesn’t live after them, but with them.”
The column raises uncomfortable questions for Guyana’s policymakers at a time when the country is enjoying unprecedented oil-driven growth but remains locked in a territorial controversy with a neighbour whose population, territory and petroleum reserves dwarf its own.
Lall’s underlying message is that in international politics, alliances are often subordinate to strategic and economic interests, meaning today’s ally can become tomorrow’s pragmatist.
