Ahead of the 2026 Budget debates, advocate Selwin Asafa George released a detailed statement that supports President Ali’s view that the current cash grant programme are unsustainable, while highlighting that the 2017 “Alaska Model” blueprint provides a permanent and secure alternative.
The “Alaska model” most commonly referred to in discussions of cash grants is the Alaska Permanent Fund and its Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), which is an annual unconditional cash payment to residents funded by oil‑based sovereign wealth fund returns.
This model often cited as one of the world’s most durable examples of a resource‑revenue‑based direct cash transfer and can resemble a form of partial universal basic income, but it is not a monthly cash grant programme in the way some proposals are structured and its size and frequency differ from typical monthly cash transfers.
Full Statement by Selwin Asafa George
“The President is right to worry about sustainability under the current NRF rules. Withdrawing from the principal to fund grants is a recipe for depletion. But by shifting to my 2017 blueprint – investing the principal and living off the returns – we can provide every Guyanese with a financially secure future. This is not an argument against helping citizens today; it is an argument for helping them every year, forever.
Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund has received US$8.39 billion in oil inflows since 2020. Under the current approach, the balance at the end of 2025 is only US$3.6–4.2 billion (~US$4,000 per citizen). This path is unsustainable: it spends the principal, exposes the budget to oil price volatility, and leaves future generations poorer.
By contrast, if 80% of those inflows had been invested in the S&P 500, the fund would now stand at US$11.58 billion (~US$12,120 per citizen). And under the 2017 blueprint, which included all natural resource inflows (oil, gold, bauxite, carbon) and required reinvestment discipline, the NRF would already be worth US$25 billion (~US$26,000 per citizen).
With a fund of US$25 billion, annual returns of ~15% would generate US$3.75 billion per year. Under the 50/25/25 rule, this would mean:
- US$938 million (GYD $206 billion) into the National Budget annually.
- A Citizen’s Dividend of ~US$981 (≈ GYD $205,000) to every Guyanese, every year.
- US$1.875 billion reinvested to grow the fund further.
The 15% figure reflects long-term gross returns achieved by top-tier diversified managers; even at 8–10% returns, the citizen dividend and budget support remain substantial, though smaller.
Year | Current Path | Oil‑Only Blueprint | Full Resource Blueprint | Correction Path |
’25 | US$3.6–4.2B (~US$4,000) | US$18.9B (~US$19,780) | US$25B (~US$26,000) | US$3.6–4.2B (~US$4,000) |
’26 | US$4.5–5.0B | US$22–24B | US$29–31B | US$6–7B |
’27 | US$6–7B | US$28–32B | US$36–40B | US$10–12B |
’30 | US$8–10B | US$45–50B | US$60–65B | US$18–22B |
’35 | US$12–15B | US$110–120B | US$145–160B | US$40–50B |
The Path Forward
If Guyana corrects its course in 2026, the production ramp to 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day by 2027 means we can still get on a path to securing our financial future. Under the correction path, the NRF could reach US$10–12 billion by 2027 (~US$10,500–12,500 per citizen), achieving a respectable per‑capita wealth. By 2030, the fund could grow to US$18–22 billion, and by 2035 to US$40–50 billion, securing a permanent financial floor for every citizen.
A Bold Call to Action
This is the single most important decision facing our leaders in this moment. Even with a flawed PSA, Guyana can secure its financial future if Parliament acts decisively.
I call on the United Parliament – Government and Opposition together – to codify this blueprint into law. History will not credit the advocates or letter writers for securing Guyana’s financial future. It will credit the political leadership – the Government and Opposition Parties – for doing the right thing.
Correcting our path now would be a legacy move, one that this generation of leaders can own by coming together in a historic moment of national unity for the good of our citizens. The financial well‑being of every future Guyanese depends on it.
Link to letter from January 2017: https://www.stabroeknews.com/2017/01/23/opinion/letters/adopt-alaska-model-benefits-oil-gas/
We should adopt the Alaska model for benefits from our oil and gas
