Duncan Questions Census Figures, Says Population Claims ‘Statistically Impossible’

By Mark DaCosta- The preliminary results of the 2022 National Population and Housing Census, released on January 12, 2026, have sparked a wave of controversy and disbelief across our nation. With a reported population increase from 746,955 in 2012 to an astonishing 878,674 in 2022, these figures are not only questionable but appear almost impossible to accept as reality. The significant delays and apparent anomalies in these results raise serious concerns about the integrity of the data and whether it has been manipulated for political advantage.

The Guyanese Bureau of Statistics (BoS) has claimed that the population experienced a dramatic surge — a staggering 17.6 percent from the previous census. Moreover, projections suggest further growth to 956,044 by 2024, figures that stand in stark contrast to our country’s historical demographic patterns. For years, our nation has grappled with a stagnant or even declining population, largely due to widespread emigration. Since 2012, thousands more have sought residency abroad, driven by economic challenges and high crime rates, making the reported domestic growth seem not just improbable but outright ludicrous.

One of the most dubious claims emerging from this census is that more than 114,000 of the new residents are locally born. This figure implies an almost miraculous rise in the natural growth rate, contradicting the ongoing decline in birth rates coupled with stable death rates, particularly exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) Member of Parliament (MP)Sherod Duncan, scrutinised the situation, stating that “the government’s claims are statistically impossible unless they are counting ‘paper transactions’ as ‘housing delivery.‘” It is astonishing to think that the usual “push factors” leading Guyanese to emigrate — such as a high cost of living and insecurity — have suddenly evaporated, allowing for such an increase in local population.

Another critical aspect of the census that demands scrutiny is its treatment of immigration, or lack thereof. The BoS states that the foreign-born population comprises only 3.07 percent of the total, which amounts to roughly 12,654 Venezuelans. This figure contradicts prevailing estimates, which suggest that over 40,000 Venezuelans sought refuge in our country by mid-2024.

Data from local registries during the years 2018 to 2022 alone documented nearly 20,000 registrants. By significantly under-reporting the number of migrants while simultaneously inflating the total population, it seems that the actual influx has been intentionally obscured. This cunning statistical manipulation presents a narrative of flourishing local growth while erasing the contributions and presence of migrants — an act of erasing reality for the sake of political expedience.

Moreover, the contentious timing of the census results reveals further issues regarding transparency and accountability. Collected in September 2022, the data was made public only after an alarming delay of more than three years — a gross deviation from standard statistical practices, where preliminary results would typically emerge within six to nine months. Such postponements point towards administrative inefficiency, but they also raise suspicions of intentional obfuscation. This lengthy silence allowed the government to operate with little oversight, making decisions often unsupportable by accurate demographic insight.

Duncan further emphasised this point, highlighting the disconnect between the census data and the National Register of Registrants. If the population indeed reached 878,674, then the existence of over 750,000 names on the 2025 Voters’ List would imply that approximately 85 percent of our nation’s citizens are over the age of 18. Given our country’s youthful demographic profile, this figure seems painfully unrealistic. Either the census grossly undercounts the population, contradicting the claims of growth, or the Voters’ List is massively inflated — a discrepancy the current administration has failed to address.

Ultimately, the 2022 Census results emerge as less a reflection of factual reality and more as a fabricated narrative to suit the needs of those in power. The combination of ludicrous population growth claimed amidst a backdrop of emigration, the stark underrepresentation of migrants, and the delay in releasing results all contribute to a scenario reeking of statistical manipulation. As Duncan concluded, “the widening gap between the Ministry’s assertions and the reality faced by Guyanese is where thousands remain stuck, waiting for solutions.”

The latest census figures stand as a damning indictment of the administration’s ability to report truthfully and govern effectively. Unless independently audited and verified, these data remain a Pandora’s Box of opportunism and statistical convenience, leaving the citizens of our nation to navigate the complexities of governance amid a web of misinformation. Without a doubt, it is crucial that we demand accountability and transparency, not only to restore public trust in our institutions but to ensure that real issues affecting the people are addressed with accuracy and integrity. As one mathematical and qualified physicist said, “these numbers are impossible.”