“Quite a buffet”: U.S. ready to seize more tankers with Venezuelan oil

• That new phase also could soon include “land strikes on Venezuela,” President Trump said Friday.

Why it matters: Impounding more tankers would threaten to further impoverish the already struggling oil-rich nation as Trump tries to force Maduro to leave office.

• Trump broke the seal on the latest U.S. strategy last week, when he authorized U.S. forces to conduct a first-of-its-kind seizure of a tanker with Venezuelan oil, the Skipper, in international waters.
• “The president has many tools in the toolbox, and this is a big one,” a Trump adviser told Axios.
• The unprecedented U.S. armada offshore can effectively blockade Venezuela or form the launchpad of an invasion, which Trump so far hasn’t authorized.

Zoom in: As many as 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships are in Venezuela’s waters now. Eight are classified as “Very Large Cargo Container ships” like Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers that monitors global shipping.

• “It’s quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from,” Madani said.

So far, Trump doesn’t want to move into Venezuelan waters to seize ships.

• “We have to wait for them to move. They’re sitting at the dock. Once they move, we’ll go to court, get a warrant and then get them,” the Trump adviser told Axios.
• “But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there,” in Venezuelan waters.
• As many as 11 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are sitting in 39 tankers in Venezuelan waters, according to Madani and Reuters.

Meanwhile, the administration is moving forward with sanctioning more vessels operating in Venezuela by adding them to the U.S. Treasury Department’s “Specially Designated Nationals” list, which the vessel Skipper was on.

• “The reality is we can SDN any ship carrying Venezuelan oil and then seize it pretty quickly,” said an administration adviser, noting that the country’s oil agency has been sanctioned by the U.S. since 2019.
• On Friday, Treasury added six new vessels to the SDN list and also sanctioned Maduro’s nephews and a businessman involved in the oil industry, Axios first reported.

Zoom out: This new phase of Trump’s pressure campaign comes as the administration’s controversial policy of blowing up suspected drug-running boats is petering out

• Since Sept. 2, 87 people have been killed in 22 separate strikes, most off the coast of Venezuela.
• Maduro denounced the U.S. attacks and, after the Skipper was seized last week, said the U.S. was guilty of “international piracy.”
• Maduro was indicted in the U.S. in 2020 as a “narco-terrorist” for his alleged involvement in trafficking cocaine.

The big picture: The U.S. military’s Operation Southern Spear campaign is ostensibly about stopping narcotics trafficking. Unofficially, it’s a regime-change effort and embodies the new National Security Strategy that asserts a “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine” for economic and military dominance in this hemisphere.

• Commercial air traffic in Venezuela has essentially been grounded after Trump announced Nov. 29 that Venezuelan airspace should be closed.

• The limited flights have hampered Venezuela’s second-largest export, gold.
• On Monday, Venezuela’s oil agency blamed the U.S. for a cyber hack. A person familiar with the administration’s planning said it could have been an inside job from anti-Maduro forces.

The intrigue: Venezuela ships much of its oil via what’s called the global “shadow” or “dark fleet.” That’s a nickname for the roughly 1,465 active vessels that try to avoid detection, and sanctions, by U.S. and European countries.

• “I wouldn’t be surprised to see interdictions and more aggressive actions targeting non-sanctioned shadow fleet vessels as a harassment technique,” said Fernando Ferreira, a geopolitical risk analyst for Washington-based Rapidan Energy Group.
• “It’s the type of thing that is going to unnerve and cause anxiety among vessel operators.”

What’s next: At the White House on Friday, Trump refused to say if he would authorize more oil tankers to be seized, then indicated he could authorize land strikes.

• “Now we’re starting by land, and by land is a lot easier, and that’s going to start happening,” he said. “It’s not only land strikes on Venezuela, it’s land strikes on horrible people that are bringing in drugs and killing our people.”

Inside the room: Aides repeatedly have presented Trump with options to escalate military action inside Venezuela by missile-striking alleged drug labs in the jungle, drug warehouses and anti-aircraft military installations.

• In contrast to blowing up drug boats, Trump hasn’t yet authorized a shootdown of suspected drug planes on the so-called “air bridge” between South America and Central America.
• The wariness about downing planes stems from the mistaken downing in 2001 of a plane carrying missionaries from Peru in what was called the “Air Bridge Denial Program,” another Trump adviser said.
• “If Trump says start shooting down drug planes tomorrow, it’s gonna happen,” the adviser said. “Maduro’s losing drug money, losing oil money and losing gold money. He’s gonna break.”