“Budget Boom, Market Bust, Cost of Living Increases”; Mid-Year Report shows prices biting households even as oil cash surges

Georgetown, Nov. 3, 2025 — Guyana’s Mid-Year Report confirms what shoppers already feel at the stalls and supermarkets; food is carrying the inflation burden, while taxes collected at the till keep climbing, despite record oil transfers into the budget.

From January to June, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.9%, and food alone contributed 2.9 percentage points of that increase; vegetables and fruits led the surge, with items like eschallot, bora, ochro and tomato, up after heavy rains, the report says. On a 12-month basis to June, inflation stood at 4.2%, with food contributing 4.1 ppts, meaning grocery bills are rising faster than most other items. The CPI table shows Food 207.92 → 225.18 between June 2024 and June 2025, while All-Items moved 141.70 → 147.60.

Taxes at the till are up. Value-Added and Excise Taxes reached G$61.1B in H1-2025—G$5.2B higher than H1-2024, driven by excise on imports (+23.7%) and higher VAT on imports. Customs & trade taxes also rose by G$3.9B, mainly from motor cars/vehicles and cement. For households, that’s a bigger bite on many import-heavy goods and services.

The report records the official rate at G$208.5/US$ and a market mid-rate of G$218.1/US$ at end-June, an FX gap that quietly raises the Guyana-dollar cost of wheat, cooking oil, medicines, devices and school supplies.

Even with NRF withdrawals ramping up and overall revenues expanding, Central Government still posted a G$35.9B deficit (after grants) by mid-year, underscoring how fast spending is running and how little relief households feel where it matters; at the market.

The World Bank estimates that about 48.4% of Guyanese lived below the poverty line of US$5.50/day and the government’s half-year report exposes how price increases on food and VAT-exposed goods land hardest on low-income families.

In some bit of good news, pump prices fell in the first half (gasoline −20.9%, diesel −32.8%, kerosene −34%), which should have helped transport costs, but customers have not reported a reduction in taxi fares and any reduction reported did not offset the food-price surge driving overall inflation.

One new parliamentarian when asked for a comment stated that, “For a country where around one in two people live near or below US$5.50/day, a tax mix leaning more on VAT and import duties plus an FX gap that prices imports closer to the market rate means growth isn’t translating into cheaper cost of living.”

Another parliamentarian stated that, “The people need targeted relief! Without targeted relief, like indexing key grants to the food CPI, narrowly zero-rating a few staples with strict sunsets, and publishing regular FX/food-basket dashboards, the “oil boom” risks feeling like another bill at the checkout rather than a dividend at the dinner table.”