Incoming A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) parliamentarian, Dr. Terrence Campbell, has raised alarms over what he describes as mounting pressures on Guyana’s foreign exchange market, accusing the government of short-term fixes and long-term mismanagement that could lead to currency devaluation.
In a public letter this week, Campbell highlighted what he called a sharp and unsustainable increase in foreign exchange (FX) interventions—US$1.2 billion so far in 2025, up from US$323 million in 2024, and zero in 2020—suggesting this reflects deep-rooted imbalances in Guyana’s economy.
“The growth in interventions points to unsustainable demand in the foreign exchange market,” Campbell wrote. “Curing this situation will require fiscal, monetary, and other prescriptions.”
He also criticised the government for waiting until after the 2025 elections to address the problem, calling it a case of “duplicity” that denied voters the opportunity to make informed decisions.
President’s Measures Draw Fire from Opposition
In response to the escalating demand for foreign currency, President Irfaan Ali recently announced a series of nine control measures aimed at improving oversight, curbing abuse, and reducing pressure on the domestic currency. These include tighter documentation protocols for importers, new verification procedures coordinated across the Guyana Revenue Authority (GRA), commercial banks, and the Bank of Guyana (BoG), as well as restrictions on the use of personal credit cards for business-related imports.
However, Dr. Campbell argues these initiatives are largely superficial and administrative, failing to address the deeper drivers of the crisis. He likened them to the currency control measures of the 1970s and 1980s—policies which. It is his view the Ali’s policy would undermine investor confidence and contributed to capital flight.
Campbell took particular issue with the restriction on personal credit cards for business use, stating that such cards are often a lifeline for small entrepreneurs navigating a notoriously rigid local banking system. Campbell said the new rule would do little to reduce overall currency demand but would increase obstacles for local businesses trying to access essential goods and services abroad.
In addressing capital flight, the government has promised harsher penalties for those engaging in over-invoicing or related-party transactions designed to move capital out of the country. While Campbell acknowledged that fraudulent practices must be addressed, he argued that the government is focusing too heavily on compliance rather than confronting the more significant issue—its own borrowing and spending habits. He highlighted the dramatic rise in public sector borrowing, with domestic credit to the central government increasing from GY$142 billion in 2020 to GY$857 billion in 2025, and external debt projected to climb to US$3.689 billion.
According to Campbell, much of this spending has gone into infrastructure that offers no meaningful return in foreign exchange earnings, as it is not aligned with export-oriented development. He stressed that construction-led growth, while boosting GDP, is highly foreign currency-intensive and unsustainable without a parallel expansion of productive, export-focused industries. He pointed to the slow rollout of the Gas-to-Energy project and the absence of tangible industrial development as signs of poor planning.
Perhaps most notably, Campbell accused the administration of ignoring the elephant in the room—gold smuggling. He noted that official gold production has fallen sharply, from 641,828 ounces in 2019 to 434,067 ounces in 2024, even as global gold prices climbed from US$1,392/oz to US$2,388/oz. He estimates the country is losing US$500 million annually through smuggled gold and claimed that some of the government’s key allies are involved. The omission of any policy response to this issue, he argues, calls into question the sincerity of the administration’s FX strategy.
“The measures highlighted by the President ignore the impact of the fiscal recklessness of his administration… They also ignore his failure to stop the smuggling of gold,” Campbell asserted. “The proposed measures are bureaucratic and threaten to take Guyana, now a petrostate, back to the dark days of foreign exchange controls.”
Confidence at Risk Amid Structural Concerns
Campbell’s critique paints a broader picture of an economic strategy overly reliant on oil revenue and infrastructure expansion while failing to lay the foundation for sustainable, non-oil growth. He warned that the increasing regulation of foreign currency transactions, combined with a lack of industrial policy and weak enforcement of anti-smuggling laws, could lead to reduced confidence in the Guyana dollar and increased capital flight.
He also criticized the government’s tendency to prioritise foreign investors over local entrepreneurs, arguing that the benefits of Guyana’s economic boom are being extracted from the country rather than reinvested to build long-term resilience.
“The bitter harvest of their profit-taking is now upon us,” he wrote.
Outlook: Reform or Reaction?
Dr. Campbell’s intervention signals that the opposition is preparing to challenge the government’s economic direction more aggressively in the National Assembly. He has called for a pivot toward export-led, non-oil development, a crackdown on gold smuggling, and a reassessment of public spending priorities.
While President Ali’s measures are framed as necessary steps to restore order and protect the currency, critics argue they are more reactive than reformative—treating symptoms while leaving the underlying disease untouched.
With mounting pressure on the FX market and growing public debate about how Guyana should manage its newfound wealth, the coming months may be a crucial test of whether the government’s strategy can hold—or whether deeper structural changes will be necessary.
