A recent claim suggesting that immigration data disproves the notion that Guyanese are leaving in large numbers is both misleading and oversimplified. While it is true that net arrivals in Guyana have been mostly positive from 2016 to 2023, the graph and data tell a more nuanced story—one that cannot be summarized by a simple rise in net arrivals.
The graph covering the period from 2015 to 2023 shows net arrivals and departures at Guyana’s major airports, including Ogle International and Cheddi Jagan International Airport. A quick glance reveals several key trends: the sharp rise in net arrivals from 2016 to 2019, a steep decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and a modest recovery thereafter. What these trends underscore is the complexity behind the movement of people in and out of the country, which goes beyond a straightforward narrative of returning Guyanese.
Economic Boom and Short-Term Visitors
The peak in net arrivals in 2019—over 35,000 people—coincides with the rise of Guyana’s burgeoning oil and gas industry, attracting foreign workers, investors, and temporary expatriates. As the oil industry ramped up production, business opportunities surged, and a flood of short-term visitors arrived to explore investments and business partnerships. This spike cannot solely be attributed to returning Guyanese diaspora members, as many might claim. Rather, it reflects a unique set of circumstances surrounding the country’s economic expansion during this period.
What followed in 2020, however, was the global COVID-19 pandemic. Borders shut down, travel ceased, and the resulting dip in net arrivals (almost to zero) was a global phenomenon that hit nearly every country. The modest recovery in 2021 and 2022 reflects the reopening of travel channels but does not signal a return to the booming pre-pandemic trend.
More Than Just Returning Citizens
One critical flaw in the claim that the graph disproves migration is the assumption that all net arrivals reflect permanent relocations of returning Guyanese. The data does not differentiate between short-term visitors, expatriates working in industries like oil and gas, and true migrants who intend to resettle. The significant fluctuations between 2016 and 2023 clearly show that these figures are influenced by external factors like tourism, business, and temporary workers rather than a sustained influx of returning citizens.
In fact, the large influx of expatriates working in the oil and gas sector—many of whom have not settled permanently—artificially inflates the net arrivals. Roughly 10% of the sector’s workforce is made up of expatriates, and their presence is transient. Once projects are completed, many of these workers are likely to depart, and this cannot be conflated with Guyanese nationals choosing to permanently return.
Migration Is Still a Reality
The notion that Guyanese are not leaving the country in significant numbers also ignores on-the-ground realities, such as the long lines outside passport offices, which have become an all-too-familiar sight in recent years. If large numbers of Guyanese were returning permanently, one would not expect to see such a consistent demand for passports, often a precursor to emigration.
These passport lines tell a different story—one of families seeking opportunities abroad, of citizens looking to leave. Guyanese continue to migrate for a variety of reasons: educational opportunities, better healthcare, and economic prospects in countries like the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. The data on net arrivals does not capture these outbound flows comprehensively. Even with positive net arrivals, it is entirely possible, and indeed likely, that significant numbers of Guyanese are departing for good, while foreign arrivals (including short-term visitors) skew the overall numbers.
A Misleading Interpretation
The real issue with the assertion that immigration data disproves the narrative of Guyanese migration is its oversimplification. The positive net arrivals from 2016 onward do not negate the fact that thousands of Guyanese are still emigrating every year. The post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and 2022 shows that while more people may be coming to Guyana, this is far from a reversal of the long-standing trend of outward migration.
Net migration data reflects the movement of all people, not just citizens. Without data that clearly distinguishes between types of arrivals—tourists, expatriates, returning citizens, and long-term migrants—the claim that Guyanese are no longer migrating simply does not hold up.
A More Nuanced Approach Is Needed
While it is true that Guyana has seen an increase in net arrivals in recent years, the data alone does not disprove the fact that many Guyanese continue to seek better opportunities abroad. The sharp rise in arrivals during the economic boom of 2018–2019, followed by the dip caused by the pandemic, paints a picture of a country experiencing dynamic and temporary changes in its population movement, rather than a permanent shift in migration patterns.
Claims that positive net arrivals equate to the end of Guyanese migration miss the mark. A more nuanced understanding of the data is required—one that accounts for short-term visitors, the expatriate workforce, and the reality that migration, for many Guyanese, remains a practical and necessary option.
