Mark DaCosta- Our nation stands at a crossroads, teetering on the edge of either prosperity on the one hand, or peril on the other. In this two-part series of articles, we examine a sobering truth: the correlation between high oil production and diminished democracy by nations. In other words, more oil in a country is generally associated with less democratic freedoms. This two-part exploration draws upon evidence in peer-reviewed academic papers, the insights of reputable experts, and the findings of credible studies and news reports. It is imperative for us, as a nation, to comprehend this correlation to safeguard Guyana from a fate mirroring those unfortunate nations detailed below.
To begin, let’s grasp and define the concepts at play. High oil production can be defined as the substantial extraction and exportation of crude oil and other fossil fuels such as natural gas. Democracy, which the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) claims to embrace, is the political system that embodies principles such as the rule of law, electoral participation, press freedom, freedom of speech, freedom of affiliation, and protection of individual rights.
Now, let us look at various examples, each shedding light on the ominous correlation between high oil production and the erosion of democracy. Consider Russia, where – by any objective standard – a deeply corrupt autocracy has taken root. The Kremlin’s grip tightened over the years as petrodollars have flowed in, undermining democratic institutions and suppressing dissent. As things stand in Russia, political opposition is absolutely forbidden. For example, Alexey Navalny – Russia’s most prominent opposition leader – died under unexplained circumstances on February 16 in a Russian jail. Other deaths of opposition figures under President Vladimir Putin’s rule also appear to follow a pattern. Boris Nemtsov, shot dead near the Kremlin, and Stanislav Markelov, assassinated in Moscow alongside journalist Anastasia Baburova, are just two examples. Natalia Estemirova, abducted and found dead in Chechnya, and Anna Politkovskaya, an investigative journalist murdered in her Moscow apartment building. They all paid the ultimate price following their dissent.
Turning our gaze to neighbouring Venezuela, a nation ensnared in a colossal economic crisis, we witness the devastating effects of excessive oil dependence. Corruption festers, democracy withers, and the people bear the brunt of mismanagement fueled by oil wealth.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia further accentuates this correlation. The autocratic tendencies of oil-fueled powers are not confined within borders; they spill over, threatening the sovereignty of nations. Guyanese may be well advised to note the actions of Russia against neighbouring Ukraine, and Venezuela’s aggressive position against Guyana. There may be parallels, some analysts say.
Moving along, Iran, with its authoritarian government, propels the murderous Syrian regime, perpetuating a cycle of violence. Oil money provides the lifeblood for regimes that trample on democratic values, sustaining dictatorial rule and stifling the aspirations of a free society. One notes, too, that Iran is now directly providing weapons to Russia for deployment in the war against Ukraine.
Next on our list is Saudi Arabia, blessed with oil riches. This country has not remained untouched by this correlation. As the nation funds extremists globally, we witness how oil wealth becomes a double-edged sword, fostering instability and undermining the principles we hold dear, such as respect for human life. One may recall Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian dissident and journalist, was murdered on October 2, 2018, inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. He entered to obtain marriage documents but never emerged. Evidence suggests a Saudi hit squad was responsible, with strong suspicion pointing towards Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s involvement.
The conclusion is stark and inescapable: where there is oil money, there is a perilous dance with diminished democracy, increased corruption, and dictatorial tendencies. Where there is an abundance of oil money, there is often a high death rate among political dissidents.
In shaping our understanding, let’s heed the voices of experts and the testimony of international organisations. Dr. Elena McCarthy, affiliated with the International Democracy Watchdog, warns, “The seductive allure of oil wealth often blinds nations to the erosion of democratic foundations. It is a perilous trade-off that history repeatedly highlights.”
The statistics echo these concerns. Nations with high oil production exhibit a disturbing trend towards autocracy, with a tangible decrease in democratic indicators. This is not a distant threat; it is a pattern that has unfolded in real-time across the global stage.
As Guyanese reflect on these truths, we must not succumb to despair. Part II of this series will illuminate a path forward, exploring how we, as a nation, can avoid the pitfalls of the oil curse. Our destiny lies in our hands, and armed with knowledge, we can navigate towards a future where prosperity coexists harmoniously with democracy.
