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By Mark DaCosta-The World Bank has issued an alarming report highlighting several serious issues affecting Guyanese including widespread poverty, poor access to high quality education and healthcare, disease prevalence, hazards associated with climate change, and the need for responsible management of oil revenues. The report mentions numerous matters of national concern.
The following are some points raised in the report.
- The Co-operative Republic of Guyana is a small, sparsely populated South American country with abundant natural resources. The country is endowed with fertile agricultural lands, valuable mineral resources including bauxite and gold, extensive tropical forests that cover 80 percent of the country, and recently discovered large offshore oil and gas reserves.
- Guyana’s national poverty headcount, the share of the population living below US$5.5 a day, is among the highest in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region at around 48 percent. Poverty rates are highest in the sparsely populated interior or hinterland, where communities have limited access to economic opportunities, healthcare, and public services. The country experiences high emigration and brain drain, with 39 percent of all Guyanese citizens currently residing abroad and roughly half of all Guyanese with a tertiary education having emigrated to the United States.
- With an economy that is heavily dependent upon natural resources, agriculture, and remittances, Guyana is vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations, adverse weather conditions, and economic conditions in migrant destination countries.
- According to the Human Capital Index, a child born in Guyana today will only be 50 percent as productive when she grows up as she could be if she enjoyed complete education and full health. This is lower than the average for the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region and upper middle-income countries. The low human capital score is in part driven by low educational and health outcomes. Although the average Guyanese student is expected to complete 12.2 years of schooling, this is equivalent to only 6.8 years of learning when expressed in terms of Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS).
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has linked Guyana’s skills shortage to its poor school enrollment and education performance rates relative to regional standards.
- Guyana has the third highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS among countries in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), ranks in the top five LAC countries with the highest tuberculosis incidence, and still faces serious malaria challenges. Furthermore, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become the major burden of morbidity and mortality for the population, accounting for a total of 70 percent of causes of deaths.
- Guyana is at high risk of climate induced hazards, including increases in heavy rainfall and related occurrences of flooding, sea-level rise and storm surges, especially in coastal areas. Simultaneously, Guyana’s contribution to climate change is expected to increase due to the oil and gas discovery, which could ultimately hinder growth and development efforts in the country if left unchecked.
Guyana’s coastal plain strip lies below the mean high-tide mark and has historically suffered flooding from both Atlantic storm surges and heavy rains. Research shows that the impact of rising sea levels and intensified storm surges in Guyana would be among the greatest in the world, exposing 100 percent of the country’s coastal agriculture and 66.4 percent of coastal urban areas to flooding and coastal erosion, with potential GDP losses projected to exceed 46.4 percent.
- Increasing oil and gas revenues will allow financing of significant budget outlays to address development needs and tackle poverty. Significant risks remain, including the management of oil wealth, the quality of spending, and Dutch disease effects. Poverty reduction will depend on the performance of the non-oil economy through job creation, including those linked to public investment projects and local content for the oil sector, as well as the redistribution of resource revenues.
