Guyana’s campaign to secure the United Nations’ highest office has received an early boost after Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett emerged as the top performer in an unofficial audience poll following the “UN Town Hall: The Next Secretary-General,” held on Thursday, July 23, at United Nations Headquarters in New York. But while the public endorsement has generated optimism, diplomats caution that the decisive battle now shifts behind closed doors to the UN Security Council, where geopolitical interests—not popularity—will determine the outcome.
The 90-minute town hall, convened by the President of the UN General Assembly with support from Bloomberg, brought together the six officially nominated candidates before diplomats, UN staff, civil society representatives and observers. The forum allowed each candidate to present a vision for the future of the United Nations and respond to questions on issues ranging from global security to institutional reform.
Following the event, Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, topped an informal post-event poll with 46 per cent support. She also led a second survey measuring which candidate delivered the strongest overall performance, receiving 49 per cent of the vote.
The audience poll placed Michelle Bachelet of Chile second with 14 per cent, followed by Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica (13%), María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador (10%), Macky Sall of Senegal (9%) and Rafael Grossi of Argentina (8%).
The informal survey was conducted among attendees at the July 23 town hall, including diplomats, United Nations staff, civil society representatives and other invited participants. While the poll provided an immediate gauge of audience reaction to the candidates’ presentations, it has no bearing on the formal selection of the next Secretary-General.
That stage is widely regarded as the most consequential part of the selection process.
Under UN rules, the Security Council recommends a single candidate to the 193-member General Assembly. However, any one of the five permanent members—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia or China—can effectively end a candidacy by exercising its veto. As a result, candidates must not only attract widespread international support but also avoid becoming unacceptable to any of the world’s major powers.
Rodrigues-Birkett is one of six candidates seeking to succeed UN Secretary-General António Guterres, whose second and final term ends on December 31, 2026. Throughout her campaign, she has argued that the United Nations remains indispensable but must become more agile, effective and responsive to an increasingly complex global landscape.
Yet history shows that impressive public performances rarely guarantee success. Once the selection process moves behind closed doors, Security Council deliberations are driven less by public sentiment than by geopolitical calculations, strategic alliances and the veto power of the Council’s five permanent members.
Rodrigues-Birkett may have won the court of public opinion at the July 23 town hall, but the outcome of her candidacy will ultimately be decided in the Security Council’s private chambers, where diplomacy, power politics and the interests of the world’s major powers—not applause—determine who becomes the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.
