Social commentator and former Chairman of the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission (GGMC), GHK Lall is urging the Government to immediately demand a full 50 percent share of oil profits from ExxonMobil, arguing that the company has effectively recovered its historical investment costs and that the cost recovery phase under the Stabroek Block Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) should now be over.
In an opinion piece published Thursday in Village Voice News, Lall contends that both ExxonMobil and the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) Government can no longer justify Guyana receiving only half of the remaining 25 percent of oil revenues after cost recovery.
“The time for sparring is over. So, also, is room for dancing around and dodging,” Lall wrote. “A full, accurate, credible 50 percent of oil profits is now due to Guyana. Exxon must be a partner. An authentic partner with accounts that match. The PPP Govt must put aside its own priorities and push for a real half of profits now the right of Guyana.“
Under the 2016 PSA, ExxonMobil and its partners are permitted to recover up to 75 percent of monthly petroleum revenues as “cost oil” to repay exploration and development expenses. The remaining “profit oil” is then shared equally between Guyana and the oil companies, while Guyana also receives a two percent royalty.
The agreement has long attracted criticism from economists, civil society organisations and the parliamentary opposition, who argue that it disproportionately favours ExxonMobil and its partners. Although the Government has repeatedly ruled out renegotiating the contract, it has maintained that future petroleum licences will carry improved fiscal terms.
Lall argues that the economics underpinning the agreement have fundamentally changed.
He points to ExxonMobil’s own disclosures showing that, of the approximately US$55 billion invested in Guyana’s offshore operations, only US$4.5 billion in recoverable costs remained outstanding at the end of 2025.
His position mirrors comments made earlier this year by ExxonMobil Guyana President Alistair Routledge, who acknowledged that the company’s historical cost bank was being depleted much faster than anticipated because of record production and higher global oil prices. Routledge disclosed in March that approximately US$5 billion remained to be recovered and said Exxon had originally expected to complete cost recovery in 2027 but that, if oil prices remained at prevailing levels, “it will happen this year.”
Lall argues that Guyana’s production—averaging approximately 900,000 barrels of oil per day—and stronger crude prices during the first half of 2026 would have already eliminated the remaining balance.
“With the full second quarter of production and higher oil prices behind Exxon’s belt, there is no way that the balance in the cost bank is not history,” he wrote. “Gonzo. No mas. Over and out for the count.”
Lall maintains that even using conservative assumptions—oil prices averaging between US$60 and US$70 per barrel—the outstanding costs would have been fully recovered months ago.
“I invite others to challenge, take apart, my arithmetic that hands Exxon money and time on a platter. And to the disadvantage of this country and its peoples,” he wrote.
If his calculations are correct, Lall argues, Guyana should no longer be receiving half of only the remaining 25 percent of oil revenues after cost recovery.
“Guyana’s half of profits can no longer be half of 25 percent,” he asserted. “Whatever cost recovery there had to be, it has been recovered in full.“
He continued: “No cost recovery, no cost bank. For emphasis and to beat this one to death: no 75 percent to be dealt with means that there is no 25 percent to be contended with, left to be divided.”
Using an average oil price of US$70 per barrel and production of 900,000 barrels daily during the second quarter of 2026, Lall estimates that Guyana generated approximately US$5.6 billion in oil revenues over that period alone.
“The sharing now has to be, must be, half for one and the same half for the other from 100 percent of revenues minus operating expenses,” he argued.
Lall’s position comes as ExxonMobil continues to identify Guyana as one of its most valuable global assets. In announcing the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial results, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Guyana delivered “industry-leading” operational performance and record production, highlighting the country’s offshore developments as a cornerstone of ExxonMobil’s long-term growth strategy.
Lall said the responsibility now rests with both ExxonMobil and the Government to demonstrate that Guyana is receiving what it is owed.
“I watch to observe where Exxon stands on this, what it will present to Guyanese. Last, I watch to learn where Guyana’s PPP Govt is, and how it approaches this open-and-shut situation. I exhort both to do justice by the Guyanese people.“
His comments add to the growing debate over whether Guyana should now receive a substantially larger share of petroleum revenues as cost recovery nears completion—a milestone that even ExxonMobil has acknowledged could arrive sooner than originally projected because of higher oil prices and record production.
