DUBAI/JERUSALEM/DORAL, Florida, March 9 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday predicted the war in the Middle East could be over soon, even as Iran’s hardliners staged a show of loyalty to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in a sign that it was not prepared to back down any time soon.
The conflicting signals sent markets on a rollercoaster, with oil prices surging and stock markets nosediving before swinging in the other direction after Trump’s comments and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
Khamenei, 56, a Shi’ite cleric with a power base among the security forces and their vast business empire, has been declared unacceptable by Trump, who has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender.
Trump told NBC News that Iran’s leaders made a “big mistake” by elevating Khamenei, but predicted the war could be over before the timeline of four to five weeks he had earlier laid out. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he told CBS News.
Soon after, Trump described the war to Republican lawmakers as a “short-term excursion” and said it would continue until Iran is “totally and decisively defeated.”
“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said.
Iranian state media showed large crowds in several cities rallying behind the new leader, waving Iranian flags and holding portraits of his father Ali Khamenei, killed by an Israeli strike on the war’s first day.
In Isfahan, state TV reported the sound of nearby explosions from apparent airstrikes as loyalists gathered in the historic Imam Square, chanting “God is the Greatest” below a stage with portraits of Ali and Mojtaba Khamenei.
In a further sign of defiance, Iran’s military said it would step up its missile strikes.
POLITICAL SYSTEM RALLIES BEHIND NEW LEADER
Politicians and institutions issued pledges of loyalty to the new supreme leader, whose wife, son and mother also died at the start of the U.S.-Israeli air onslaught according to Iranian state media.
“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a defence council statement said.
Iranians reached by telephone were divided, with supporters of the authorities hailing the choice as a declaration of defiance and opponents fearful it would dash their hopes for change.
“I am so happy that he is our new leader. It was a slap in the face to our enemies that thought the system will collapse with the killing of his father. Our late leader’s path will continue,” said university student Zahra Mirbagheri, 21, from Tehran.
Many Iranians had initially celebrated the elder Khamenei’s death, weeks after his security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters in the worst domestic unrest since the era of Iran’s 1979 revolution. But there has since been little sign of anti-government activity, with activists fearful of taking to the streets while Iran is under attack.
“The (elite Revolutionary) Guards and the system are still powerful. They have tens of thousands of forces ready to fight to keep this regime in place. We, the people, have nothing,” said Babak, 34, a businessman in the central city of Arak who asked to keep his family name confidential.
Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. U.S. officials mainly say Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.
Israel had said it would kill whoever succeeded the elder Khamenei unless Iran ended its hostile policies.
OIL SURGES, THEN DIPS BACK
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage fills.
Brent crude futures jumped about 7% to settle at their highest price since 2022 after soaring by as much as 29% during the session, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut supplies. But prices fell in post-settlement trade.
The price of gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where Trump’s Republicans hope to keep control of Congress in midterm elections in November.
Trump’s administration is considering a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil to tame oil prices, according to three sources familiar with the matter, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting U.S. exports, sources said.
OIL REFINERY HIT
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.
Turkey said on Monday NATO alliance air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.
Turkey, Iran’s neighbour with NATO’s second-largest army, had warned Tehran on Saturday against attacking again, but it has not suggested it wants to formally call on bloc members for further protection.
Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where Israel has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.
U.S.-Israeli attacks have killed at least 1,332 Iranian civilians and wounded thousands, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador. Lebanon has reported more than 400 people killed there, with nearly 700,000 people fleeing their homes.
In Israel, ambulance workers said one man died from shrapnel wounds at a construction site near Tel Aviv’s international airport, raising to 11 the death toll from Iranian strikes.
