By GHK Lall
Everybody is talking about it; all want it to happen now. It is called renegotiation of the 2016 oil contract, with the AFC being the latest to throw its hat on that side of the ring. The PNC has not come full out for or against renegotiation, but there have been sounds coming from the party that could be interpreted as anything that gives Guyana a better deal, more favorable contract conditions, is well-received, and would be strongly supported. Additionally, civil society groups, such as Article 13 and Our Wealth, Our Guyana (OWOC) have made clear that they are for contract renegotiation.
I would contend that by a process of elimination, this leaves the ruling PPP Government as the only political presence that is steadfast in its circling around, hopping about, and vacillating over the growing local push for renegotiation. As has become clearer, the PPP Government, with the Vice President leading the way, is seeking to making itself small to the point of being invisible on this renegotiation issue. Like nervous four-footed beasts of burden, leading lights in the PPP Government sniff the air for what could be dangerous to Exxon in these rising and relentless calls for renegotiation. It is why the Vice President paws the ground so skittishly, as though he has some secret, and in opening his mouth he would give himself away, and make Darren Woods and Alistair Routledge conclude that he is not the man for the job, for not holding the line against renegotiation. So far, the Vice President, with President Ali tagging along, has been a picture of sidestepping and doubling over as he labors unsuccessfully to get agitated Guyanese to drop the renegotiation issue. The Vice President’s baffling dodges today contrast sharply with how the PPP was when it was the official Opposition.
During that time, the PPP group was all thunder and lightning (rightly so) against the 2016 contract. This continued after it returned to power, when leading members of the PPP Government hit the volume button to deliver the loudest, sharpest messages that they were thoroughly and unequivocally against the 2016 oil contract and its terms; some calling it a crime (again rightly) of impressive proportions. Given the PPP’s new hesitancy, fearfulness, and retreat on renegotiation, I think that it was always about politics, focused on scoring points against the PNC, making it look bad. What was verbalized by leaders in the PPP Government, the VP, the lawman, and the moneyman, had little to do with the terms and conditions of the contract. All of that was part of the party’s and government’s usual pretenses and farces.
The handicap is that neither the President nor the Vice President has the guts or the standing to face off against Exxon and the Americans. The company and that country are owed big time. Thus, the President and Vice President continue the glaring case of inferiority complex they develop when they have to grapple with foreigners from North America and Europe. They blink. In the domestic arena and with their own people, they are pitbulls; but when outsiders are in the mix, they are the best examples of subservience and embarrassing groveling. This is what is at work today with how the government reacts to calls for renegotiation.
But now with recent political and civil developments, this does not have to be the situation anymore. What the PPP Government has in its hands is priceless. It is the best present that any government, any leader, can wish for, in that political adversaries and competitors have signaled their willingness to throw their full weight in support of renegotiation. I think it is a development and gift that has vast possibilities. This means that, if the President and Vice President are genuine and serious about getting more for Guyanese in the light of changing local and global circumstances, then they have most of Guyana behind them to make this happen. I think that the door has been opened for a sufficient number of vociferous and angry citizens to come out publicly and stand in vocal support of leadership calls for renegotiation of the oil contract. Still, I would first prefer a full Guyanese contingent-at least government and opposition, and possibly others-at the table of discussion. It would represent something we have never had before in any negotiation with foreigners: a coherent front, a cogent position, and a concerted and comprehensive presentation. An unflinching and unswerving one.
On the other hand, should Exxon balk, then I am sure that its people witnessed the gathering that can be called out for something like a carnival. I am positive that the U.S. people on Guyanese ground have taken notice, absorbed where this could lead, and what it may mean to Exxon’s stranglehold on Guyana’s oil. To be frank, behind the scenes threats of sanctions and such may not be of much utility when the whole society is up in arms. A united front on renegotiation would mean no divisions. That is, no separating Ali/VP and Norton/Ramjattan into opposing camps where renegotiation is the issue on the table. Since, all heads are together and arms linked, it is intriguing as to what this could do to all the sword-fencing, parrying, and weaving over sanctity of contract. The sanctity of our sovereignty and sanctity of our patrimony should and must always trump that, particularly given the roots of the hemorrhaging contract ransoms now paid by Guyanese.
Exxon had its turn of the wheel, and it is well within its rights to challenge claw and fang any calls for renegotiation. I would recommend to the company, however, that it is bad for business, bad for relationships, and bad for the goodwill of Guyanese. Exxon renegotiates in good faith what it cleverly obtained under duress, and informational advantage, is a better way to go about matters, especially for the long-term.The PPP Government must put, even prove, its patriotism now. It must be as one with all Guyanese groups calling for renegotiation.
